Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
With more than 750,000 Israeli settlers in the West Bank and East Jerusalem now, the stakes are much higher in 2020. The U.S. should create a new model for bilateral support that entrenches Palestinian sovereignty rather than incentivizes Israeli settlements.
The EU should seize the historical opportunity of the Israel-UAE agreement to propose bold, new ideas for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and bringing peace to the Middle East.
Whether the Israel-UAE deal holds and has an enduring impact on the region will depend on several factors.
It should be obvious that the timing of normalization efforts in the Middle East are tied to the political interests of the key players.
Perhaps a more accurate way to evaluate this agreement is the consolidation and formalization of ties that have been in the works, largely subterranean, for a decade or more. But the strategic impact, at least for now, won’t be nearly as consequential as Israel’s peace treaties.
The loss of the Arab world’s commitment to an end of Israel’s occupation as a precondition for Middle East peace will spell the death knell for a negotiated political solution.
The Emirati-Israeli peace agreement will help refocus Palestinian objectives on securing equal rights.
Israel’s plans to annex parts of the West Bank may have been temporarily suspended, but anyone who believes the world is any closer to a negotiation, let alone an agreement to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, is mistaken.
As Israelis and Palestinians confront the future, prospects for serious negotiations, or even a conflict-ending solution, look particularly grim.
A Biden administration will be eager to separate itself from the policies of its predecessor and restore credibility to U.S. foreign policy, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would seem like a prime candidate for a decisive pivot away from the Trump era.