Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
With preparations accelerating, it seems increasingly likely that the Palestinian National Liberation Movement (Fatah) will hold its Sixth General Conference during 2008. Yet given the advanced state of disintegration in which the movement finds itself, it may well be a case of too little too late. Simply put, Fatah’s very survival now hangs in the balance.
The failure of the Palestinian national movement and its shaken credibility in the public eye are giving strength to religious movements, which are expanding to fill a widening gap.
A presidential election in Palestine will not take place until Fatah and Hamas reach consensus—and Israel permits it—resulting in a deadlock with no clear path toward political reconciliation. In a question and answer guide, Nathan Brown offers an analysis of Palestinian law and the core disagreements between the Palestinian factions that cast doubt on President Mahmud Abbas’s political future.
The simultaneous announcement of an agreement between government and opposition in Lebanon and of the start of indirect talks between Israel and Syria in Turkey might be the best news to come out of that troubled region for a long time. While the United States favored neither position, these two developments may have a positive influence on the region.
With recent news of a political agreement for Lebanon and Syrian-Israeli peace talks, Carnegie Middle East experts Marina Ottaway and Paul Salem provide a briefing on the latest developments in the region.
Former Palestinian negotiator Ghaith al-Omari and Carnegie Middle East expert Nathan J. Brown discussed Brown’s new report “Sunset for the Two-State Solution?” in which he argues that the current U.S. approach to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict actually further undermines the chances for a two-state solution.
The Bush administration is using its final months to try to gain agreement on a two-state solution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict—but much of the framework supporting such an agreeement has collapsed. The next president will face a series of bleak choices, of which a two-state solution remains the most attractive.
Confrontational U.S. policy that tried to create a “New Middle East,” but ignored the realities of the region has instead exacerbated existing conflicts and created new problems.
Confrontational U.S. policy that tried to create a “New Middle East,” but ignored the realities of the region has instead exacerbated existing conflicts and created new problems. To restore its credibility and promote positive transformation, the United States needs to abandon the illusion that it can reshape the region to suit its interests.
The Middle East peace process will fail unless Palestinian political institutions are rebuilt. The international efforts to rebuild Palestine are in reality counterproductive. Instead, a long-term international strategy based on restoring Palestinian institutions, encouraging a Fatah–Hamas agreement, and emphasizing regional diplomacy are needed.