
Radical cleric Anwar Al-Awlaki's powerful appeal to violent extremists, ties to al-Qaeda, and apparent inspirational role in the failed Christmas Day bombing and the Fort Hood shooting have made him a high priority target for the Obama administration.

From Argentina to Yemen, there are ten political stories that may erupt this summer.

Most Europeans rank Yemen low on their list of priorities. Yet the country threatens their interests more than they recognize, and they can do more about it than they might think.

The Yemeni government is mired in an unwinnable and sporadic civil conflict in the northern governorate of Saada that has weakened the central government, accelerated the economic crisis, and threatens global stability by emboldening al-Qaeda.

Yemen’s secessionist Southern Movement threatens the country’s stability, but a military campaign against it would only further inflame its supporters and increase support for al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. A political solution is required.

Since Yemen became a policy priority three months ago, there has been much discussion about the emergence of under-governed spaces in the country as host for Al-Qaeda. It is critical to understand how these alternatively governed areas function, deal with conflict, and how traditional methods of conflict resolution work.

There are limits to how much foreign intervention can accomplish in Yemen. To overcome its daunting security, economic, and political challenges, Yemen’s political system needs to become less centralized and more inclusive.

Al-Qaeda is not the only factor threatening Yemen’s stability. Water shortages, collapsing oil supplies, war, refugees, pirates, and poverty all put the country at risk of becoming a failed state.

Former Prime Minister Tony Blair’s testimony in front of the Chilcot Commission demonstrated the reluctance of the British government and public alike to reopen the Iraq war debates, even as Britain and the United States face a situation in Yemen which could lead to a new military intervention.

While growing Islamic extremism in Yemen is alarming, in the longer term it is the country’s domestic challenges that threaten to bring Yemen to its knees, with potentially destabilizing consequences for the region.