This book examines the forces—political, strategic, technological, and ideational—that led to India's dramatic nuclear policy shift and describes how New Delhi's force-in-being will be fashioned, particularly in light of the threat India faces from its two most salient adversaries, China, and Pakistan.
Military operations appear imminent as Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld takes a swing through the Middle East and Central Asia. But this will not be like previous wars. Don't expect to see explosions behind CNN reporters. The targets will be select, precise and far from telephoto lenses.
Tuesday's terror attacks on New York and Washington DC should bring about a major shift in US nonproliferation policies. Until now, the main goal of US nonproliferation policy has been to prevent the emergence of new nuclear nations. After Tuesday's terror attacks, however, the focus of US efforts is to prevent terrorists from acquiring weapons of mass destruction. In most ways these policies are complementary and not in competition. But making the shift will pose risks and require tradeoffs.
State Department Director for Policy Planning Richard Haass describes the Bush Administration rejection of key international treaties as "a la carte multilateralism." New York Times reporter Thom Shanker says administration officials reject pacts that limit U.S. actions but favor those that restrain others, such as missile technology restraints, the Chemical Weapons Convention and the Non-Proliferation Treaty. But can the whole survive with just some of its parts? Can global security be maintained piece-meal? Project Director Joseph Cirincione warned of the dangers of precisely this approach in Foreign Policy magazine last year.
Carnegie International Non-Proliferation Conference 2001
Listen to Opening Remarks of Jessica Mathews, president of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
On May 11, on the third anniversary of India's nuclear tests, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage met with top Indian government officials to talk about missile defenses and non-proliferation concerns. His message found a receptive audience. Three years after the nadir in U.S.-India relations, the turnaround in relations is striking.
On Wednesday, January 17, India conducted a successful test of the 2000 km-range Agni II nuclear-capable ballistic missile. The test demonstrates that India's nuclear weaponization program continues to progress, albeit in slow-motion. According to Indian officials, this was Agni II's first test in "its final operational configuration," and the mission's objectives were met "satisfactorily." With only two successful tests nearly two years apart, Agni II is still not ready to deploy, although it is a step closer.
On December 20, Pakistan announced a partial withdrawal from the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir, responding to India's extension of a cease-fire against Kashmiri militants. India's Prime Minister Vajpayee cited "encouraging developments" in announcing the decision to extend the cease-fire beyond the original December 28 deadline to January 26, 2001. The latest developments suggest that the Indian cease-fire against the militants and Pakistan's commitment to exercise "maximum restraint" along the LoC have succeeded in creating a new dynamic in the region.
On December 3, Pakistan announced that its armed forces along Kashmir's Line of Control (LoC) would immediately "observe maximum restraint in order to strengthen and stabilize the cease-fire." This was in response to an unprecedented Indian cease-fire against Kashmiri militants, which took effect on November 27. India says there has been a "recognizable reduction" in firing across the LoC, but by December 6, Indian troops had killed twelve suspected guerillas trying to cross the LoC, arguing that the cease-fire did not extend to infiltrators. Even as each side wondered about the motivations of the other, these developments have engendered cautious optimism about peace prospects in nuclear-armed South Asia, while demonstrating the many hurdles ahead.
An effective Indian deterrent against Pakistan and China would require one hundred and fifty nuclear warheads, delivered by missiles or bombers, according to a key advisor to the Indian government on nuclear and strategic issues. Mr. K. Subrahmanyam, a leading member of the National Security Advisory Board, which authored India's Draft Nuclear Doctrine, argues that India should "project a credible deterrence," by working out strategies, policies and a command and control structure. He described India's Draft Nuclear Doctrine as a "most logical, most restrained and most economical" document.