Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The radical jihadi group known as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union. A little bit more than twenty years after it first appeared, this on-going transformation has made it less connected to Uzbekistan, and more to a global jihad.
South Asia’s future remains clouded with uncertainty. The upcoming U.S. exit from Afghanistan, the radicalization across the region, and persisting political rivalries continue to impede regional growth and economic integration.
In autumn 2001, U.S. and NATO troops were deployed to Afghanistan to unseat the Taliban rulers. Yet, despite a more than decade-long attempt to eradicate them, the Taliban has endured—regrouping and reestablishing themselves as a significant insurgent movement.
The problems arising across the globe from militant radical Islam cannot be dealt with at a later date. Russia and the West have vital mutual interests, since they share this common enemy. Given the extent of its involvement, Russia should take the initiative.
Some say the chaos in western Iraq is foreshadowing of what awaits post-2014 Afghanistan. But Kabul knows its vulnerabilities and will not shun outside help.
Narendra Modi’s accession as India’s new prime minister raises questions about the future of India-Bangladesh relations. Modi’s predecessor enjoyed a strong relationship with Dhaka, although he did not conclude key agreements on border demarcation and water sharing.
The world treats Afghanistan as a doctor would treat a seriously ill child that nevertheless shows some signs of improvement. If Moscow sincerely wants Afghanistan to return to peace and stability, then it should stop looking at this country through the prism of its present relations with Washington.
Over the past few years Pakistan has been trying to signal that its foreign policy has changed, yet Pakistan’s strategic objectives in Afghanistan remain largely the same.
It’s important to understand the limits of U.S. assistance: It can help build security institutions, but it cannot shape how those institutions are commandeered for personal, political, or communal aims.
The potential fallout of the relatively rapid departure of American forces by 2015 does not bode well for Afghanistan’s future, and could exacerbate India-Pakistan rivalries in Afghanistan.