Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) had its annual plenary meeting last week in Paris, where it grappled with hard cases, like Pakistan. FATF’s blacklist for nations that do not uphold its standards can effectively cut them off from the international financial system.
Two nuclear-armed rivals in South Asia—India and Pakistan—have not fought openly since the 1999 Kargil conflict, but the lack of active war has not meant the absence of violence.
The number of ceasefire violations in Kashmir has risen dramatically in recent years. These deteriorating conditions along the border may be a good measure of India-Pakistan relations.
Whatever might be the civilian rhetoric, Pakistan’s army leadership is quite conscious that making the United States an enemy and putting all the eggs in the China basket is not a smart strategy.
If China returned to genuine neutrality on the Kashmir question between India and Pakistan, it could make it a lot easier for New Delhi to set aside its sovereignty argument on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Any easing of tensions with Afghanistan and India will significantly boost Pakistan’s prospects for economic advancement at home and the elevation of its international standing.
The construction of the Gwadar port and the Chinese presence on the shores of the Arabian Sea highlight a new geostrategic dynamic that is likely to affect the regional balance of power.
While the hopes for a durable peace might be premature, the conflicts in Kashmir and Afghanistan might be entering a new phase in their long and depressing history.
A regular survey of experts on matters relating to Middle Eastern and North African politics and security.
How the process of third-party intervention affects deterrence strategies and prospects for peace between India and Pakistan and lessons for other regional nuclear rivalries.