Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
It is now two years since North Korea withdrew from the Nonproliferation Treaty and since Pyongyang restarted its plutonium production program. The results of efforts by South Korea, China, Japan and particularly the United States have failed to convince North Korea to abandon its nuclear program and are now little but an empty shell of a policy. 2005 will be a difficult year.
The new UN report, "A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility," addresses emerging threats of the 21st century. It identifies erosion of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, the stagnation of disarmament efforts, illicit nuclear trafficking, and the potential threat of nuclear terrorism major crises of the nonproliferation regime as. The report proposes a multi-layered response to these threats.
In 2006, Japanese power utilities hope to open the nation’s first commercial nuclear fuel reprocessing plant in the remote village of Rokkasho. The facility will combine the plutonium with recovered uranium, a product known as mixed-oxide or MOX. Although there is currently no commercial demand for this product, Japan’s Atomic Energy Commission is fully in favor finishing the plant.
A new book provides broad trend analyses of the major Asian sub-regions, as well as an array of transnational topical studies. It also evaluates current threats to regional peace and stability, considering how the strategic environment in Asia could change.
Carnegie’s associate Dr. Veron Hung testified before the Congressional-Executive Commission on China. Her testimony focused on one issue: Will Hu Jintao, who finally took over China’s military chairmanship from Jiang Zemin last Sunday, soften Beijing’s stance on democratization in Hong Kong?
Despite widespread hopes, democrats in Hong Kong were unable to secure a majority of legislative seats in the September 12 elections. Why were democrats unsuccessful? What are the implications of the elections on democratization in Hong Kong and on cross-Strait relations? And what role should the U.S. should play with regard to Hong Kong?
There are two contradictions between China's internal dynamics and the requirements of an internationalist foreign policy. First, because nationalism legitimizes the Communist party, Beijing's leaders will be tempted to sacrifice long-term diplomatic objectives for short-term political gains. Second, a liberal internationalist foreign policy is incompatible with China's illiberal governance.
Recognizing the growing public demand for democratization, the communist leadership of Beijing is prepared to enter a dialogue with Hong Kong democrats. Some in the U.S. Congress want to show solidarity with Hong Kong democrats and toughness toward Beijing by removing beneficial economic treatment that Hong Kong receives. This would be a mistake; better options exist.
The first section of this paper looks at the basic objectives of Taiwan’s defense reform and modernization programs and the successes and failures to date. The second section assesses the underlying reasons for those successes and failures. A final section assesses the prospects for the future and the implications for U.S. policy and U.S.–ROC relations.