Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Despite reports that North Korea may be preparing to conduct a nuclear test and may soon have access to another four weapons worth of plutonium, North Korea’s nuclear capabilities and intentions remain unclear. The known facts, however, are disturbing enough to confirm that current efforts to stop North Korea’s nuclear program have failed.
Earlier this year, on February 10, North Korea declared definitively that it had nuclear weapons. While not supported by new evidence, the Foreign Ministry statement enhanced the perception that North Korea is a nuclear weapon state. While responsible leaders have to assume North Korea has enough nuclear material to make a weapon, there is no clear evidence that it has produced such weapons or can deliver them reliably. (Read More)
North Korea has taken a series of actions in the past few months that in normal times would have provoked a major international crisis. Yet, the Bush administration is unconcerned about these moves that directly threaten American security and the security of key US allies South Korea and Japan. The U.S. now appears resigned to the fact that North Korea has the ability to make nuclear weapons and is not prepared to take coercive steps or otherwise to prevent it from consolidating its status as a nuclear weapon state.
North Korea has taken a series of actions in the past few months that in normal times would have provoked a major international crisis. Yet, the Bush administration is unconcerned about these moves that directly threaten American security and the security of key US allies South Korea and Japan.
As envoys from around the world meet this month in New York to review the NPT, this important security system is mired in such discord that it is in danger of crumbling.
North Korea does not have a missile that can hit the United States. This is a theoretical capability, not an operational one. Nor is there any evidence, at least in open sources or leaked classified ones, that North Korea can make a nuclear warhead small enough to fit on a long-range missile.
In just over one month, representative from over 180 countries will meet in New York to review the status and condition of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. This meeting, which takes place every five years as required by the agreement, occurs in an environment more negative than at anytime in its history and the potential for the month-long meeting to produce a positive result is in serious doubt. South Korea is in a unique position to improve the prospects for a successful meeting and Seoul should take active and even aggressive steps to play a large, constructive role at the meeting. (Read More)
In just over one month, representative from over 180 countries will meet in New York to review the status and condition of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. This meeting, which takes place every five years as required by the agreement, occurs in an environment more negative than at anytime in its history and the potential for the month-long meeting to produce a positive result is in serious doubt. South Korea is in a unique position to improve the prospects for a successful meeting and Seoul should take active and even aggressive steps to play a large, constructive role at the meeting.
It is now two years since North Korea withdrew from the Nonproliferation Treaty and since Pyongyang restarted its plutonium production program. The results of efforts by South Korea, China, Japan and particularly the United States have failed to convince North Korea to abandon its nuclear program and are now little but an empty shell of a policy. 2005 will be a difficult year.
The International Atomic Energy Agency will approve its report on South Korea’s past nuclear activities this week. Unfortunately, the Roh government has resisted any attempt to refer the issue to the to the UN Security Council for a final resolution. This is unfortunate, since a UN resolution would not only further demonstrate South Korea’s new found openness regarding its peaceful nuclear intentions, but it misses a golden opportunity to demonstrate to North Korea how it must behave to resolve outstanding nuclear concerns.
U.S. President George Bush has won reelection. He is the first President to receive more than 50 percent of the votes cast since 1988 and got more votes than anyone President in American history. In addition, his Republican Party has increased its majority in both houses of the US Congress, giving the President an even more comfortable base of support in Washington. Overall, President Bush can claim a mandate from the American people, and it is reasonable for him and his advisors to view the vote as an endorsement on their policies and priorities. This will have serious and possibly profound implications for US policy and for many other countries, particularly key US allies in East Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. The end result may be to project the split nature of American politics onto the rest of the world, forcing countries to choose between the United States or alternative approaches to their security.