Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
A new book provides broad trend analyses of the major Asian sub-regions, as well as an array of transnational topical studies. It also evaluates current threats to regional peace and stability, considering how the strategic environment in Asia could change.
The National Bureau of Asian Research held a conference, Strategic Asia and the War on Terrorism, at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on September 22, 2004, in conjunction with the launch of its new book Strategic Asia 2004-2005: Confronting Terrorism in the Pursuit of Power, co-edited by Ashley Tellis and Michael Wills and with a contribution from Michael Swaine.
If last week’s startling explosion in North Korea were really a nuclear test, it is certain that the world would know it by now. Thanks to a combination of technological advancements and international cooperation, there are both national and international monitoring systems in place that can detect nuclear tests worldwide. These systems are able to tell us, with scientific precision, whether or not an atmospheric, space-based, underground, or underwater explosion was nuclear in nature.
North Korea has an active nuclear weapons program and may now possess several nuclear weapons. U.S. troops, allies in the region, and strategic interests are directly threatened by North Korea's growing nuclear capability, which has been pursued in violation of Pyongyang's commitments under the Non-Proliferation Treaty and other agreements. Given North Korea's economic strains, it is conceivable that for a high price Pyongyang might sell nuclear materials or weapons to other states or even terrorist groups, taking a regional threat to a global level. Such a scenario is so grave that U.S. policy makers could soon face a truly appalling choice between acquiescing in North Korea's transfer of its weapons technology and fighting a full-fledged war on the Korean peninsula.
The Bush administration plans to make significant additional cuts in the size of US troop deployments in South Korea. Such reductions may leave North Korean leaders with the impression that it is their recently enhanced nuclear capabilities that are driving the American withdrawal and embolden the reclusive state to take provocative actions in the months before to the US election.
On May 12, the United States, North Korea and the other members of the 6-Party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program will hold a first round of working level talks. Don’t expect any progress, however, either at these talks or anytime until after the November U.S. election. Both sides are playing the waiting game and hoping the circumstances will improve their position after the election.
Each day that passes allows North Korea to advance its nuclear capabilities and further establish itself as the ninth nuclear weapon state. The exact size of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is a mystery, but press reports suggest that portions of the U.S. intelligence community believe Pyongyang has quadrupled its arsenal to 8-9 weapons in the past year.