Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Despite widespread hopes, democrats in Hong Kong were unable to secure a majority of legislative seats in the September 12 elections. Why were democrats unsuccessful? What are the implications of the elections on democratization in Hong Kong and on cross-Strait relations? And what role should the U.S. should play with regard to Hong Kong?
There are two contradictions between China's internal dynamics and the requirements of an internationalist foreign policy. First, because nationalism legitimizes the Communist party, Beijing's leaders will be tempted to sacrifice long-term diplomatic objectives for short-term political gains. Second, a liberal internationalist foreign policy is incompatible with China's illiberal governance.
Recognizing the growing public demand for democratization, the communist leadership of Beijing is prepared to enter a dialogue with Hong Kong democrats. Some in the U.S. Congress want to show solidarity with Hong Kong democrats and toughness toward Beijing by removing beneficial economic treatment that Hong Kong receives. This would be a mistake; better options exist.
The first section of this paper looks at the basic objectives of Taiwan’s defense reform and modernization programs and the successes and failures to date. The second section assesses the underlying reasons for those successes and failures. A final section assesses the prospects for the future and the implications for U.S. policy and U.S.–ROC relations.
There are currently widespread concerns regarding the "one country, two systems." Recent steps taken by Beijing and pro-democracy advocates in Hong Kong show their strong interest in developing constructive dialogue. Such dialogue would help develop mutual trust, which is crucial for democratic development in Hong Kong and the successful implementation of the "one country, two systems" principle.
There are currently widespread concerns regarding the "one country, two systems." Recent steps taken by Beijing and pro-democracy advocates in Hong Kong show their strong interest in developing constructive dialogue. Such dialogue would help develop mutual trust, which is crucial for democratic development in Hong Kong and the successful implementation of the "one country, two systems" principle.
In most emerging-market economies in East Asia, domestic economic, political, and social pressures push governments in the direction of a relatively inflexible exchange rate and freer capital inflows. This is a bad combination. Exchange rate stability and predictability would be a boon to commerce and finance. But achieving it is easier said than done.
Four leading China-Taiwan experts discuss political, diplomatic, and security implications of the second Chen Shui-bian administration.