Several trends from China have converged in 2020, creating an international shockwave and rising to the top of foreign policy priorities.
U.S. and European sanctions against Russia, as well as the U.S. trade war with China, are good reasons for Moscow and Beijing to persevere with their plan to build a wide-body airplane, despite their differences.
The emergence of a Pax Sinica including Russia could draw new dividing lines over Eurasia.
As Russia becomes increasingly pulled into China’s tech orbit, the Rubicon will be the Kremlin’s final decision on whether to use Chinese or Western technology to develop 5G networks in Russia—and currently Chinese companies look like the favorites.
U.S. President Joe Biden and his administration are breaking out onto Asia's diplomatic stage in a big way, beginning with the first-ever leaders' meeting of the "Quad" (the United States, Japan, Australia and India).
Given that competition is inevitable, the United States must maintain multipolarity in Asia, create constraints on Chinese action in the region, and work with likeminded allies and partners like Japan and India.
Nuclear risks between the United States and China manifest differently than those of the past U.S.-Soviet nuclear competition, or that of the United States and Russia today.
To succeed, the Quad needs to evolve from a China-focused club of four to a group of first movers on an array of specific functional challenges. The best way to do this is for the four countries to form the core of a rotating set of ad hoc problem-solving coalitions in the Indo-Pacific.
The race is on to vaccinate Europeans, and it’s a competition between East vs West. Russia and China aren’t just selling vaccines—they’re peddling a value set that undermines international norms.
China and India struggle to comprehend each other’s international ambitions. The misperceptions that follow lead to a lack of trust, border skirmishes, and potentially worse.