Discussion of Moisés Naím's new book Illicit: How Smugglers, Traffickers, and Copycats are Hijacking the Global Economy.
Features event video and audio.
For the past decade Central Asia has been cast as the site of a new "great game," with the United States vying for influence with Russia and China.
Through a combination of country, regional, and topical studies, Strategic Asia 2005–06: Military Modernization in an Era of Uncertainty assesses how Asian states are modernizing their military programs in response to China's rise as a regional power, the war on terrorism, changes in U.S. force posture, the revolution in military affairs, and local security dilemmas.
The U.S. faces potential risks from the prospects of greater destabilization within Russia, from the possible risks of regime collapse in Uzbekistan and Central Asia more generally, and from the chance that the frozen conflicts in the south Caucasus could “thaw.”
The Carnegie Endowment event with Carnegie Senior Associate Martha Brill Olcott, Robert Kaiser of The Washington Post and Ambassador Stephen Sestanovich of the Council on Foreign Relations to launch Dr. Olcott’s new book Central Asia's Second Chance, published by the Carnegie Endowment in July 2005.
Early hopes for a democratic transition in Central Asia after the fall of the Soviet Union were dashed, but new hope was raised as the global community re-engaged with Central Asia in the wake of 9/11. Martha Brill Olcott explains how the region squandered its "second chance," and what might happen next.
Discussants explore the events that led up to Kyrgyzstan's Tulip Revolution, the extent of corruption present in the Akayev regime, Kyrgyzstan's geopolitical relations with China, and the goals and challenges of the new administration.
For the third time in 18 months seriously flawed elections have brought down the government in a CIS state, and for the first time this has occurred east of the Urals, demonstrating that popular expectations in the Asian states of the former Soviet Union are not appreciably different from those in the European ones.
The ouster of Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev shows that popular expectations in the Asian states of the former Soviet Union are not appreciably different from those in the European ones. The United States and its OSCE partners must be prepared to provide Kyrgyzstan’s interim authorities with the technical assistance necessary to make these elections meet international norms.
If this experiment with democracy in Kyrgyzstan fails, it will fail due to the lack of preparation by the Kyrgyz elite, rather than the immaturity of the Kyrgyz population. The close knit Kyrgyz community facilitated revolutionary events. The smallness and closeness of the elite allowed the population to hold its leader responsible and played a key role in bringing down President Akaev.