None of the five Central Asian states have fulfilled the democratic aspirations that were held by their citizens some fifteen years ago, not to mention the aspirations held by people like us, outside observers, the analysts and activists that are gathered at this meeting.
A discussion of the national interests and strategies of the U.S., Russia, and China in the region. Has a new Great Game taken shape? What kinds of competition and what degree of cooperation can be expected? How will political and social dynamics within Central Asia affect the plans of the great powers?
This event featured presentations by Turkmenistan's two major opposition leaders living abroad, Nurmuhammed Khanamov and Khudayberdy Orazov, speaking and participating in a discussion via live video-conference from Berlin. Carnegie Endowment Senior Associate Martha Brill Olcott moderated the event.
Although the official statement yesterday on Turkmenistan's president spoke of his "divine foresight," not even this dictator could foresee his own death or what will happen to his country afterward.
The states of Central Asia are of increasing strategic importance for the U.S., yet unfortunately the opportunities that U.S. policy-makers have for influencing developments in this region are relatively circumscribed.
A successful Russian modernization is the most reliable basis for the foreign attractiveness of the country. Volumes of energy resources as such will not make Russia a great power, energy is not the same as leadership, nor is harshness the same as effectiveness. This is precisely how a post-imperial project differs from a neo-imperial one.
The Carnegie Endowment event with Carnegie Senior Associate Martha Brill Olcott, Robert Kaiser of The Washington Post and Ambassador Stephen Sestanovich of the Council on Foreign Relations to launch Dr. Olcott’s new book Central Asia's Second Chance, published by the Carnegie Endowment in July 2005.
What we have seen play out over the last few weeks in Kyrgyzstan is but the first scene of a lengthy drama that will dominate the Central Asian stage over the next few years. And we can only hope that in later acts, the action won't turn bloodier.
Discussants examine the challenges of conflict prevention in five Central Asian countries since their independence. A profound transformation of the political, economic, and social landscape of Eurasia has taken place, but challenges like poverty, HIV , drug trafficking, and deterioration of health care and education systems remain serious problems.
The challenge of building democratic societies in Central Asia is becoming more profound with each passing year, and unfortunately there are no easy answers to the question of how to alter this situation.