Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Follow Carnegie
- Search
- Global Resources
Global Centers
Languages
As John McCain formally accepts his nomination for president, Russian coverage of the event and the campaign in general has been distanced and sometimes condescending. Instead, the Russian media has mainly been focused on the events in Georgia.
H.E. Nino Burjanadze, former speaker of the Georgian parliament, warned that the current Russian show of force was more about Russia’s attempt to establish a new regional order rather than support the independence efforts of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), an integral part of the bilateral nuclear relationship between Russia and the United States, will expire in December 2009. To discuss what should replace the treaty, the Carnegie Moscow Center hosted Ambassador Linton Brooks, the United States’ chief negotiator during the 1991 START talks.
Russia’s aspirations for the next U.S. administration, although taken with a grain of salt, should not be treated as irrelevant. Ideally, from a Russian perspective, the next administration will act on the basis of U.S. interests and avoid unilateralism. Nevertheless, Russia does not seek to supplant the current U.S. system with a different one.
Putin may have succeeded Boris Yeltsin, but he decided to adopt the leadership style of Yury Andropov. This style is reflected in Russia’s current dealings with Georgia, which represent a major foreign policy shift for the country. However, these actions will prove to be harmful for Russia and will reignite its own current ethnic separatist movements.
There are six lessons of the Russia–Georgia crisis for Taiwan: (1) Be careful about security commitments; (2) Don’t provoke an antagonist and expect to be rescued; (3) A constructive relationship between America and major powers is essential to the security of vulnerable states; (4) Geography matters; (5) Speak softly when you don’t plan to carry a big stick; and (6) Credibility is global.
The nature of nations, like people, never changes. Today's political realists say economics rather than military might has become the guiding principle of countries, but the conflict in Georgia shows otherwise.
Although U.S.-Russia relations have deteriorated, options for cooperation still exist. Particularly in the area of nuclear nonproliferation, collaboration is essential and may be the best way to ameliorate relations. Russia, the U.S., and Europe should start with negotiating the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), which will provide a starting point for brokering a new consensus.
Unlike what has recently been alleged, the world is not experiencing a new Cold War. Today’s chill in U.S.-Russia relations rests on Russia’s belief that what is good for the West is inherently bad for Russia. Jumping headlong into a confrontation would be a bad idea though for the West. Instead, Western leaders should show that we can gain more from partnership.
The Russia-Georgia conflict is a watershed for a new era in geopolitics. As America scrambles to react to the crisis, Russia will continue to challenge Western influence in the former Soviet space. In turn, both will turn to Europe, and Europe’s ability to defend its own interests will be the most severe test yet for the Union. All the while, China, Iran and others watch with keen interest.
Stay connected to the Global Think Tank with Carnegie's smartphone app for Android and iOS devices
