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As U.S.-Russia relations continue to sour over the Russia-Georgia conflict, it is unclear how the two nations will be able to rebuild their relationship. Although the conflict led to the current deterioration in relations, problems between the two countries were present before. Despite strong rhetoric from Washington, there is a need for an improved dialogue between the United States and Russia.
Russia's invasion of Georgia raises doubts about the common assumption that, in the post-Cold War world, geopolitical conflict will eventually be replaced by economic interdependence and cooperation. As countries like Russia and China begin to strengthen, however, this trend does not necessarily mean that America must relinquish its superpower status.
The search for a way for all parties in the Russia-Georgia conflict to sit down at the negotiating table is gradually beginning. There is real promise that an EU forum can establish an acceptable format and most likely, Russia is ready to make some concessions. Nevertheless, excessive pressure on Moscow will only strengthen its internal conservative forces and thus exacerbate its hard line stance.
Although in the short term the basis for a ceasefire has formed between Russia and Georgia, the conflict has entirely transformed the region. Russian peacekeepers can now no longer operate alone in the separatist regions. In addition, South Ossetia and Abkhazia cannot revert back to Georgia. Finally, the already deteriorating Russia-U.S. relationship will now face a new set of challenges.
A united Europe could play the pivotal peacemaker in the Russia-Georgia conflict, strengthening cooperation in the continent’s east. However, both unity and independent action on Europe’s part are unlikely. Therefore, the Russia policy of the next U.S. president will be essential for ensuring stability in the region.
The Russia-Georgia conflict has illustrated Russia’s new “containment policy” that is targeted towards the West. However, there is some evidence that the Russian elite may also be seeking some reconciliation. The real test of this notion will come if Ukraine insists on joining NATO, and the question of what to do with Crimea will have to be answered.
With the Russian city Sochi scheduled to host the next summer Olympics, Russia needs to rebuild confidence in the world community. Russia’s overreactions along with a lack of finesse in the Russian military doctrine have done much to severely damage relations with the international community. Russia must now begin to rebuild these relationships, starting with withdrawing from Georgia.
In the midst of the Russia-Georgia conflict, Poland has agreed to host part of a U.S. missile defense system. For Russia, this move indicated that the missiles were aimed against Russia rather than Iran as the U.S. has been alleging. This agreement may lead to further deterioration of U.S.-Russia relations, as well as, cause challenges for the Poland-Russia relationship.
The collapse of the Soviet Union resulted not only in new borders for Russia, but left millions of ethnic Russians in former Soviet republics. For these people, the Russian language remains a defining influence in their lives, even where local nationalist agendas seek to downplay and underestimate its prevalence.
With reports that Russian troops remain in Georgia, the West continues its diplomatic push to resolve the conflict. Yet the U.S. and its allies have limited leverage with which to influence Russian policy.
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