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As Russian forces move deeper into Georgia, it is clear that despite questions over who started the conflict Russia’s ambitions are far larger than attaining the two Georgian separatist regions- South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Russia military campaign has capitalized on Georgia President Mikheil Saakashvili's missteps, and will seek regime change in Tbilisi even if the new leadership is still anti-Russian. Moscow's objective in the Caucasus is to restore its position as the predominant power in the face of Western encroachment.
Russia’s aggressive behavior in Georgia will have implications throughout the Caspian Sea Region, forcing Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to rethink their strategic priorities with the West. Russia has reasserted itself as the dominant player in the region and revealed how difficult it is for the U.S. to maintain a strategic position around the Caspian.
Russia’s military campaign in Georgia is Vladimir Putin’s boldest move to reassert Russian dominance across its borders. Robert Kagan explains, “This is the culmination of Putin’s efforts to pull Georgia back within Russia’s sphere and exert control over it... There won’t be a pro-Western Georgian government who wants to join NATO by the time that Putin is finished with this.”
With the escalation of violence between Georgia and Russia, and the apparent ceasefire of military operations by Russia, the role of the United States in the build-up and outbreak of the conflict has been largely muted.
Russia’s use of military power to obtain geopolitical objectives in Georgia is reminiscent of strategy pursued by 19th century superpowers to gain resources and power on the international stage. The West must make it clear to Russia that their long-term relationships are at stake if the country does not withdraw its military.
Russia’s use of force against Georgia – a close ally of the U.S. in a strategic region for oil and gas transport – is the first time since the fall of the Berlin Wall that Russian forces have violated another country’s sovereignty and international law. A resurgent Russia is testing the will of the international community to hold it responsible for its actions.
Despite President Bush's condemnation of Russia's continued attacks on Georgia, the international community has yet to form a united response to the crisis. Western powers must make it clear that Russia will pay a high price for its actions through political and economic sanctions and possible suspension of the NATO-Russia relationship.
Russia’s response to Georgia’s large-scale military operation in South Ossetia transformed the conflict from a regional dispute over an obscure ethnic group into an emerging international crisis between Russia and the West. While Georgia may have succeeded in causing Russia to move in with heavy forces, the United States and Europe need to pause and think before following Saakashvili's script.
Alexander Solzhenitsyn was a premodern giant who defied the limits of human ability and the forces of nature. His world was that of ethical absolutes, unshakable values, spiritual discipline and self-sacrificial commitment.
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