The dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains the most dangerous conflict in the post-Soviet space. Even if political tensions have eased since 2018, the region remains dangerously militarized.
While Azerbaijan will not become a Western-style liberal democracy anytime soon, recent trends point to a society that is changing—and a government that may now recognize the need to change along with it.
The EU should help Georgia overcome its latest political crisis and in that way invest in the further democratization and stability of the wider region.
Azerbaijan has long been an island of unchanging continuity, but a generational overhaul is underway. With mounting expectations and a resurgent opposition, 2020 will be a testing year for Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.
The political dynamics of the wider European space have changed dramatically in recent years. The directions of democratic influence now run multiple ways, and the core assumptions underpinning EU democracy support policies need to be rethought.
Syria’s Armenians risk losing their identity and language as they move to the Republic of Armenia.
Mass protests garner significant attention, but what happens next is just as vital for achieving real and lasting change.
Any future effort to revise the regional order in post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia must address the region’s protracted conflicts. It will be impossible to address the other disputes over the security architecture and economic integration without parallel steps on the conflicts.
The Georgian breakaway region of Abkhazia is under pressure. As Georgian-Russian relations suffer a downturn, Abkhazia risks becoming closed off from the outside world just like South Ossetia.
Abkhazia has grown more internationally isolated and dependent on Russia over the last decade, and the big political issues about its future remain unresolved.