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In this paper commissioned by the International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament, George Perkovich and Patricia Lewis identify possible nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation steps that could take the world in the mid-term to a position from which the latter steps toward abolition of nuclear weapons could be charted.
Russia has threatened to cut gas supplies to Ukraine on January 1st if a $2 billion gas debt is not resolved, and both countries stand to lose if they fail to reach a settlement in time. Carnegie experts in Washington and Moscow discuss the implications of the dispute for regional stability, European energy security, and Russia’s relations with the West.
Given Venezuela's close collaboration with Iran, those states and companies that would contemplate nuclear cooperation with the Chávez government should consider whether they might help recreate the alarming history of Iran's nuclear program and subsequent international crises.
Successive U.S. administrations have forfeited the chance to integrate Russia into the West first afforded by the collapse of Communism and again by 9/11. The United States has either neglected Russia or openly disregarded its overtures and warnings on a range of regional concerns. President-elect Obama needs a comprehensive approach to Russia based on a shared vision of European security.
The Kremlin is pursuing two varying policies. In the Western hemisphere, Moscow attempts to replay Cold War games. Off the coast of Africa, Russia has joined with the navies of the US and others to confront the dire threat of piracy. Since Moscow has painfully few resources available to defend its national interests, it needs to choose a single model. Medvedev should go with the pirates.
One of President-elect Obama’s main foreign policy challenges will be figuring out the proper approach to dealing with Russia. Although ties with Russia have been damaged because of the August Russia-Georgia crisis, Russia, a re-emerged power, is a key player in issues such as Iranian nuclear proliferation and the Middle East peace process.
"Global Zero" has become a well-known slogan to revive the decades-old idea of eliminating all nuclear weapons. Interest in abolition has been renewed by the concern that the use of nuclear weapons could become ever more likely. With nuclear deterrence we bought time, but it would be a tremendous mistake to believe that deterrence will always work.
The severe economic crisis in Russia is currently spilling over into the political and administrative spheres. However, the government is not responding properly. Instead of improving administration effectiveness, the Russian government is simply reshuffling regional heads. In economics, the Kremlin is putting unneeded burden on businesses and regional governments.
The path back from the brink of conflict will be a difficult one for Russia and the West. It will require an ambivalent Russia to choose love over hatred, to purge its old demons and to rethink its global role. It will also require the self-absorbed West to adopt a long term strategy for promoting peace and prosperity in Eurasia.
Russia and Venezuela commence joint naval exercises this week, coming on the heels of Russian President Medvedev’s four-nation tour of South America. Though Russia’s recent closeness with U.S. neighbors may be an attempt to challenge U.S. regional primacy, the United States should avoid over-reacting.
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