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Although a ceasefire has been called by Russia and Georgia, the crisis is far from over. The U.S. could have prevented the conflict had it proactively sought out a solution for Abkhazia and South Ossetia months or years before. In addition, the U.S. should have strengthened its diplomatic relationship with Russia rather than allowing it to deteriorate.
Despite Western media coverage that paints Russia as solely responsible for the conflict in Georgia, the question of who is to blame is far less clear.
French President Nicholas Sarkozy will meet with Dmitry Medvedev in an effort to move the Russian leadership toward a cease-fire agreement already signed by Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili. Even if a ceasefire is reached, continuing turmoil in South Ossetia, which refuses to return to Georgian control, and Abkhazia, where the political situation remains unclear, will keep tensions high.
None of the Central Asian leaders like the idea of Russian hegemony, but the risk of anarchy and war in the border regions of Russia frighten them even more. They might not like the idea of Moscow as regional policeman, but in the absence of a viable alternative, they might swallow it more easily if Moscow turns into an effective one.
Robert Kagan argues that the Russian-Georgian conflict over the South Ossetia marks the official return of history to an almost 19th-century style of great-power competition, where military power is used to obtain geopolitical objectives.
Although U.S.-Russian relations have steadily deteriorated over the past number of years, the current conflict between Russia and Georgia marks a dramatic worsening of relations. Masha Lipman argues that the West’s inability to prevent Russia from projecting its force is very disquieting.
As Russian forces move deeper into Georgia, it is clear that despite questions over who started the conflict Russia’s ambitions are far larger than attaining the two Georgian separatist regions- South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Russia military campaign has capitalized on Georgia President Mikheil Saakashvili's missteps, and will seek regime change in Tbilisi even if the new leadership is still anti-Russian. Moscow's objective in the Caucasus is to restore its position as the predominant power in the face of Western encroachment.
Russia’s aggressive behavior in Georgia will have implications throughout the Caspian Sea Region, forcing Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to rethink their strategic priorities with the West. Russia has reasserted itself as the dominant player in the region and revealed how difficult it is for the U.S. to maintain a strategic position around the Caspian.
Russia’s military campaign in Georgia is Vladimir Putin’s boldest move to reassert Russian dominance across its borders. Robert Kagan explains, “This is the culmination of Putin’s efforts to pull Georgia back within Russia’s sphere and exert control over it... There won’t be a pro-Western Georgian government who wants to join NATO by the time that Putin is finished with this.”
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