The Kremlin still has the convincing argument that is military force, but as Russia experiences defeat on the battlefield in Ukraine, its hand is now weaker than it once was.
The European Political Community aims to draw EU’s neighbors into its orbit while leaving enough room to accelerate European integration. Doubts remain over the new platform’s ability to overcome the harsh political realities that sunk similar initiatives over the years.
Azerbaijan’s military action in Armenia has gravely damaged chances of a settlement. EU-mediated negotiations, the only viable peace talks, need greater international support.
This particular war is the latest attack from Azerbaijan on Armenia, in this case on Armenia's international borders, really makes it difficult, rattles the already ongoing peace process that was created, that was put in place after the 2020 war.
NPR's A Martinez talks to Paul Stronski of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how Russia's war with Ukraine is reshaping the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict.
While Yerevan seems to be in a weaker position and interested in negotiations, Baku is seeking to assert its advantage. The outbreak of a new conflict on Europe's borders would clearly be detrimental to EU security.
If everything continues the way it is going in Nagorno-Karabakh, for the Armenians Russia will become the ally that couldn’t protect it, while for the Azeris it will be the mediator that did the enemy’s bidding.
Peace talks involving Armenia and Azerbaijan appear to be proceeding favorably with the mediation of the European Union. In spite of this breakthrough, questions remain regarding the role of Russia and the OSCE Minsk Group, as well as for the Armenians of Nagorny Karabakh.
Russia's setbacks in Ukraine have limited its capacity to project power in its neighborhood. With the EU as the main mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the two sides should use this chance to seek an elusive peace.
With Russia unable to act as key mediator, the countries are looking elsewhere for help.