Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
It has been two decades since post-Soviet states gained independence, but democracy fails to emerge and shake autocratic regimes, although they have the educated and intellectual elites it takes to develop it.
The presidential election results in Azerbaijan should be no surprise. However, they were a real test for the regime as it was the first time it was confronted with a serious opposition. But most importantly these elections also became a test for the Azerbaijani opposition itself.
Azerbaijan votes in a presidential election on October 9, and there is little doubt as to who the winner will be.
Everyone actually knows the result of Azerbaijan’s presidential election—that President Ilham Aliyev will be elected for a third term. But today’s vote is most important as a test on the state of the country’s opposition.
The result of Azerbaijan’s upcoming presidential election is not in doubt. But the incumbent president will face a new set of challenges during his next five-year term.
Azerbaijan’s opposition has united around a set of democratic ideals and is making the most of the limited opportunities for campaigning. Will they be able to overcome the apathy of the voters who have never seen a fair election?
The October elections in Azerbaijan and Georgia seem to mean different things for those two countries. In Azerbaijan, there is a continuity of Aliev rule that is moving toward sultanism. In Georgia, one could observe the end of one epoch and the beginning of another.
Azerbaijan, like all of Syria’s regional neighbors, is affected by the ongoing civil war there.
Russia and the European Union are competing intensely for influence in Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and other countries.
Nearly 20 years since the 1994 ceasefire, Armenia and Azerbaijan have still failed to resolve their dispute and normalize relations.