Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Russia's setbacks in Ukraine have limited its capacity to project power in its neighborhood. With the EU as the main mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the two sides should use this chance to seek an elusive peace.
With Russia unable to act as key mediator, the countries are looking elsewhere for help.
So far during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Turkey has positioned itself in a manner mostly convergent with its Western Allies. However, Ankara’s exposure to Russia on multiple fronts present it with difficult choices. Join Carnegie for a conversation on the implications of Russia's war in Ukraine.
To mark the first anniversary of the Second Karabakh War, a group of experts from the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies published the book Storm Over the Caucasus. Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, wrote the book’s afterword.
In the aftermath of the 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan war, the South Caucasus is experiencing a major reset in trade links and economic cooperation. New railway and highway construction projects could bring new life—but who stands to win or lose?
The traditional geopolitical boundaries that have defined the South Caucasus in the post-Cold War era are shifting as the region becomes increasingly connected to the eastern Mediterranean and wider Middle East.
The number of conflicts ending in peacefully negotiated settlements has declined since the 2010s. Cases of states applying militarized and coercive approaches to solving ethno-political conflicts through war and violence are now becoming ubiquitous.
The November 2020 ceasefire agreement halted the war over Nagorny Karabakh, but a sustainable peace agreement remains far from reach. By providing economic support and fostering dialogue and reconciliation, international actors can play a role in this long-term project.
The pact Russia brokered in Nagorno-Karabakh has plenty of holes. Yet while their relations with the Kremlin remain tense, Western powers are better equipped to patch up the agreement’s shortcomings than Russia is, and they have strong reasons for trying to do so.
Russia’s peace deal for Armenia and Azerbaijan has halted the war over Nagorny Karabakh and exposed the Western countries as bystanders. The Europeans must now try to help shape a lasting peace on the ground.