Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
In post-Soviet countries, the leaders of national churches are increasingly exercising considerable influence on their populations and pursuing their own social and political agendas.
While the nations of the Caucasus are heavily influenced by historical narratives of intractable ethnic conflicts, a more critical look at the region’s history reveals a number of surprising alliances and pragmatic resolutions.
A critical component of the reset in U.S.-Russian relations, the Bilateral Presidential Commission facilitates engagement among government, business, and civil society actors on topics ranging from nuclear energy to public health.
While war is not likely to break out over Nagorno-Karabakh in the near future, there is a growing possibility that escalation in the tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia could kill the peace process.
The ongoing conflicts in the Caucasus stem more from the way the region was managed under the Soviet system than from any ethnic incompatibility or ancient hatreds among its inhabitants.
The inability of Armenia and Azerbaijan to find any common ground in their conflict over Nagorno Karabakh undermines the chance of peace in the region and, without more constructive international engagement, increases the risk of outright war.
A revival of the Turkish-Armenian Protocols would benefit the entire region, but it will require increased effort to convince both the Turkish public and Azerbaijan to support the normalization process.
Diaspora Armenian politics are playing a significant role in holding up U.S. diplomatic nominations to the countries of the South Caucasus, which risks undermining U.S. engagement and influence throughout the region.
The normalization process between Turkey and Armenia stalled only months after its auspicious beginning in October 2009, when the foreign ministers of the two countries signed two historic protocols establishing diplomatic relations between the bitterly divided neighbors.
While there is virtually no hope that the 2009 Armenian–Turkish Protocols will be ratified soon, both parties should take steps to rebuild confidence and affirm their faith in the process.
