Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
While the Caucasus is too often treated as a subset of Russian history or as merely a gateway to Asia, it remains an important and combustible region, whose inner dynamics and history deserve a much more complex appreciation from the wider world.
The current political and economic situation in the South Caucasus is partly the result of the misconceptions about the region that have been propagated by both outsiders and locals.
Located in an important economic and transport corridor, the countries of the South Caucasus are grappling with the challenges of post-Soviet independence, internal and external tensions, and unresolved conflicts in three breakaway territories.
Narrow bilateralism is an abiding problem in regional policies in the South Caucasus, and it is only complicated by the multiple policy agendas of outside interests such as Russia or the United States.
The international community cannot afford to let the unresolved dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh remain a low priority; a renewal of violence would impact not only Armenia and Azerbaijan, but also Georgia, Russia, Turkey, and Iran.
The bloodshed on the ceasefire line should focus minds and be a reminder that a new conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh would be catastrophic for everyone, not just Armenians and Azeris.
While Nagorno-Karabakh engages in the process of building a de facto state, hardening attitudes in Karabakh and Azerbaijan could lead to a war which would affect the entire South Caucasus, including Georgia, Iran, Russia, and Turkey.
Armenia suspended the process of normalization with Turkey in April, dealing a blow to an agreement designed to open the closed Armenia–Turkey border after almost a century of hostility between the nations.
Negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are deadlocked, with serious consequences not only for the nations involved in the conflict, but also for the Armenia-Turkey reconciliation process.
Six months after the signing of protocols intended to normalize relations between Armenia and Turkey and open the closed border between the two countries, the protocols are in danger of collapse.
