Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Despite the lessons of the last three decades, the importance of Ukraine for Russia is still greatly overstated. It’s time to carry out a long overdue reevaluation of that importance.
The Kremlin continues to view the breakaway republics as a buffer zone and Trojan horse inside a recalcitrant Ukraine, but allowing their inhabitants to take part in Russian domestic politics will help to score key propaganda points.
In the last two years, President Zelensky has managed to strengthen his personal power considerably. His battle against the influence of Ukraine’s oligarchs, therefore, may not be as hopeless as it might first seem.
The self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk republics are moving on from the wild days of economic piracy to more orderly exploitation schemes. The prospects of reintegrating the region under the Minsk accords are growing more illusory.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sees his growing popularity as proof that he chose the right course when he gave up trying to please all the disparate groups that voted for him in 2019. He is likely to continue his anti-Russian rhetoric and sanctions against domestic enemies.
Russia is bound to have prepared for different military scenarios in Ukraine. Spreading uncertainty is an essential part of Putin’s policy.
Biden’s call to Putin confirmed that unchecked escalation is not part of the new U.S. administration’s plans. Tough rhetoric, preemptive escalation, and the announcement of new sanctions were necessary for Biden to start the inevitable conversation with Russia.
Join us for a conversation featuring Vicki Birchfield, Erik Brattberg, Philip Breedlove, and Suzanne DiMaggio in conversation with Suzanne Kelly, with special remarks by Sam Nunn on on the path forward for the transatlantic alliance.
There is no consensus in NATO in favor of Ukraine’s membership. What the most determined Western countries can do is provide intelligence and military support to Ukraine, including weaponry and capability building.
Perhaps the most important thing for the Russian leadership in this episode was to prevent the need to actually go to war against Ukraine in the future. Going overkill in terms of military maneuvers on the Ukrainian border now may avoid the need to do terrible things at a later point.