Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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For ASEAN the EU is a legitimate counterbalance, both to the Chinese and the U.S. military standoff, that is going to be coming our way in the next couple of years.
There have been many more democratic openings since 2011 than is commonly thought. In that time, the EU has accelerated its response to crises and conflicts but has failed to develop financial, diplomatic, and trade mechanisms that grasp democratic opportunities with the same conviction.
Bringing the Western Balkans into Brussels’ fold through extra money or more vigorous diplomacy has become a priority since Russia’s latest invasion of Ukraine. But the EU cannot deliver the holy grail: speedy membership.
Expectations were high for the first in-person EU-ASEAN summit in years but the meeting agenda did not rise to the occassion. Despite having plenty of common ground, the bloc missed an opportunity to strengthen its commitment to ASEAN by leaving the big ticket items to the side.
The EU and ASEAN need each other to counterbalance the geopolitical rivalry playing out between China and the United States. A strong partnership requires better communication by Brussels.
Europe now faces economic challenges that include high energy prices; the collapse of trade with Russia; the closing off of Chinese markets; and a return to industrial policy and trade discrimination by the U.S., a country with a giant current-account deficit that buys more from Europe than any other trading partner.
While Paris and Berlin continue to support Ukraine, their mixed signals toward Russia have unnerved some European partners as well as Kyiv. This ambivalence could puncture EU unity.
Over the last several years, citizens in Europe have been randomly selected to participate in specific policy debates. But to make an impact, selection-based participation needs to be more integrated into mainstream democratic politics.
Only the combination of military assistance and reconstruction efforts now will one day put Ukraine in the position to decide if and when it wants to negotiate.