Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The EU remains the Western Balkans’ primary trading partner and investor. But failing to step up engagement and deliver on enlargement promises will come at a high cost and benefit the likes of Russia and China.
China’s presence has brought socioeconomic opportunities to Georgia, Greece, Hungary, and Romania. Yet it has exacerbated governance shortfalls, undermined elements of political and economic stability, and complicated the European Union’s ability to reach consensus on key issues.
The prompt stabilization of the European gas market is not only in the interests of collapsing European companies, but of Gazprom, too.
For many years, analysis on European foreign policies has centered on the notion of EU norms being diffused outwards. This dynamic is now facing greater resistance around the world and within Europe, as the EU's external policies become more equivocal. A new conceptual framework is required.
Despite serious concerns over the state of European democracy, a spirit of democratic resistance has gained significant traction. Still, to turn the tide decisively in democracy’s favor, more ambitious renewal will be needed.
Despite the fallout over AUKUS, France does not intend to withdraw from the Indo-Pacific. The diplomatic crisis has given President Macron a chance to make his country’s voice heard on a major geostrategic issue.
COP26 provides a forum for deliberating about climate adaptation, but such global meetings must also account for the needs of developing nations. A narrow climate agenda will only perpetuate divisions between postindustrial and developing countries.
The AUKUS move is likely to drive Europeans even more deeply into passivity when it comes to Indo-Pacific security matter.
Belarus is illegally sending migrants to Lithuania and Poland in response to these governments’ outspoken criticism of Lukashenko’s crackdown on the opposition. This cynical strategy is prompting the EU to forge its own short-sighted migration policy.
Seen from Moscow, Angela Merkel’s long tenure was a period of relative, if not always palatable, predictability in German-Russian relations. The future of the relationship will depend in no small measure on who succeeds her and how skilled that successor is at the art of statecraft. Merkel is leaving behind very big shoes to fill.