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The current structure of U.S. aid to Egypt neither generates goodwill toward the United States nor alleviates poverty. U.S. economic aid would be much more effective if it encouraged microfinancing or invested in programs to clear Egypt’s northern coast of mines and distribute the land to poor farmers.
The Gulf needs a regional security organization that includes Iran and the six GCC members to address two key issues: how an anticipated U.S.–Iran thaw will affect the Gulf’s relations with Iran, and what Gulf countries can do to contribute to a stable, strong Iraqi state.
Syria is the common denominator linking the toughest challenges for the United States: reining in Iran’s nuclear ambitions and solving the Arab–Israeli conflict. Syria’s support for Hizbollah and Hamas and its ties to Tehran give Damascus significant regional influence—and the only thing that would moderate Syrian positions is a full Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights.
Hamas is an integral part of the Palestinian political map, and no solution to the Arab–Israeli conflict that excludes it can last. Isolating or marginalizing Hamas—the government in Gaza and the broader movement—paves the road to extremism by closing off avenues for political participation.
The United States and Egypt both have an interest in advancing the Arab–Israeli peace process and addressing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. But the bilateral relationship could deteriorate quickly if the Obama administration’s engagement effort increases Iran’s regional influence, threatening Egypt’s interests and its traditional role as a regional leader.
The Tunisian government has convinced the United States that Islamic extremism is such a serious threat that democratic reform in Tunisia would jeopardize counterterrorism efforts. This and a tarnished U.S. image in the region has allowed Tunisia to avoid serious pressure to introduce significant political reforms.
Washington needs to rethink its approach to North Africa. Algeria’s decades-long struggle against domestic terrorism and its current efforts to dismantle al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb make it a key source of counterterrorism expertise, and its strategic location and energy reserves deserve sustained U.S. attention.
Ending the Algerian-backed separatists’ fight for control of the Western Sahara is one of Morocco’s top priorities. Morocco supported the U.S.–led first Gulf War and offered to mediate the Arab–Israeli conflict in an attempt to persuade the United States—which maintains a long-held neutral position on control of the Western Sahara—to endorse Morocco’s claim to the area.
The Middle East greeted President Obama’s Cairo speech with enthusiasm, but many cautioned that words, though welcome and encouraging, must be matched by actions to mend the relationship. To explore the issues the Muslim world hopes the U.S. administration will address, the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut commissioned eight commentaries from prominent Arab writers and policy makers.
Though global economic activity is beginning to stabilize, it is too early to say that a sustained recovery has begun. Considerable risks remain that the healing process could be interrupted by new shocks. To mitigate these risks, policies must remain proactive.
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