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For the better part of three decades, U.S. policy toward Iran has largely focused on punitive measures aimed at weakening the Iranian regime and limiting its regional influence. It is high time to concede such an approach has failed to achieve its bottom line: Iran’s regional influence is greater today than ever, and hard-liners have a virtual monopoly over power in Tehran.
The marquee names get the transition headlines. For that reason, the potential Obama-Clinton marriage has the pundits stirred up. But for all the focus on glamorous celebrities, the real work of the government gets done down below the cabinet level. And the competition for those jobs is, if anything, fiercer and less dignified than that for the top jobs. Which is saying something.
The genius of all great systems is their ability to reinvent themselves, to adapt to changing environments. That's the reason why those whose response to the current crisis is to announce the end of capitalism are so misguided. Capitalism will survive. But it will not, and should not, survive unchanged. We are going to enter an era of resurgent regulation at the national level and global level.
One of President-elect Barack Obama's top priorities will be to rethink the "war on terror" from the ground up. That means following through on his campaign promises to close the US military prison at Guantánamo, which would be a major symbolic achievement.
The United States has long relied on a financial system that intertwines its economy with China and Japan, allowing us to run huge trade and budget deficits. Now, as this ad-hoc system may be leading the world toward a global depression, most policymakers agree that the U.S. should reduce its trade deficit with Asia, while Asian countries should abandon their strategy of export-led growth.
More than one-third of the remaining 255 detainees at the U.S. detention facility in Guantanamo Bay are Yemenis, representing the single largest national contingent.
Obama’s election marks the culmination of a Democratic realignment that began in the 1990s, as the core of the Democratic party has shifted to include more professionals, more women, and a wider array of minority groups. In the face of an economic downturn not unlike that which spawned the New Deal, Obama can consolidate this new majority if he acts swiftly to deliver on his promises.
Although President-elect Obama and President Medvedev have not gotten off to a warm start, that may not set the tone of the relationship. In the past, leaders in both capitals that started with high expectations about the other country were subsequently disappointed.
The G20 meeting scheduled for November 15 will begin to restructure the global economic order, presenting new challenges to the leaders of wealthy nations. The U.S. must support new global financial institutions and regulatory systems, and President-elect Obama will need to convince Americans that stronger multilateral mechanisms will actually help preserve our sovereignty and influence.
In recent years, as foreign policymaking power has shifted from the State Department to the White House, giving the president even more control over the national security process. President-elect Obama’s choices of national security and foreign policy advisers—and the amount of power that he gives each of them—will determine how decisions are made within his administration.
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