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Riot police attacked hundreds of demonstrators with tear gas and fired live bullets in the air to disperse a rally in central Tehran Monday, carrying out a threat by the country's most powerful security force to crush any further opposition protests over the disputed presidential election.
Much of what President Obama promised in his historic speech in Cairo will take a long time to fulfill. But there is one place where his influence could be used for immediate and important results: resolving the Kurdish question in Turkey and northern Iraq.
The political turmoil in Iran is not good news for the president but, rather, an unwelcome complication in his strategy of engaging and seeking rapprochement with the Iranian government on nuclear issues.
The current structure of U.S. aid to Egypt neither generates goodwill toward the United States nor alleviates poverty. U.S. economic aid would be much more effective if it encouraged microfinancing or invested in programs to clear Egypt’s northern coast of mines and distribute the land to poor farmers.
The Gulf needs a regional security organization that includes Iran and the six GCC members to address two key issues: how an anticipated U.S.–Iran thaw will affect the Gulf’s relations with Iran, and what Gulf countries can do to contribute to a stable, strong Iraqi state.
Syria is the common denominator linking the toughest challenges for the United States: reining in Iran’s nuclear ambitions and solving the Arab–Israeli conflict. Syria’s support for Hizbollah and Hamas and its ties to Tehran give Damascus significant regional influence—and the only thing that would moderate Syrian positions is a full Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights.
Hamas is an integral part of the Palestinian political map, and no solution to the Arab–Israeli conflict that excludes it can last. Isolating or marginalizing Hamas—the government in Gaza and the broader movement—paves the road to extremism by closing off avenues for political participation.
The United States and Egypt both have an interest in advancing the Arab–Israeli peace process and addressing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. But the bilateral relationship could deteriorate quickly if the Obama administration’s engagement effort increases Iran’s regional influence, threatening Egypt’s interests and its traditional role as a regional leader.
The Tunisian government has convinced the United States that Islamic extremism is such a serious threat that democratic reform in Tunisia would jeopardize counterterrorism efforts. This and a tarnished U.S. image in the region has allowed Tunisia to avoid serious pressure to introduce significant political reforms.
Washington needs to rethink its approach to North Africa. Algeria’s decades-long struggle against domestic terrorism and its current efforts to dismantle al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb make it a key source of counterterrorism expertise, and its strategic location and energy reserves deserve sustained U.S. attention.
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