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Washington insiders are calling for the establishment of a League of Democracies to tackle the world's problems. But the last thing people in other countries are looking for from the next administration is a high-profile initiative tying democracy promotion to the global U.S. security agenda.
My esteemed colleague Noam Scheiber has suggested that Barack Obama’s results in the Philadelphia suburbs did not possess the significance I attributed to them. Clinton’s advantage there, he suggests, didn’t show that she was cutting into Obama’s prior advantage among affluent, educated voters--voters that have made up much of his white support.
The Democratic primary is over. Hillary Clinton might still run in West Virginia and Kentucky, which she'll win handily, but by failing to win Indiana decisively and by losing North Carolina decisively, she lost the argument for her own candidacy. She can't surpass Barack Obama's delegate or popular vote count. The question is no longer who will be the Democratic nominee, but whether Obama can defeat Republican John McCain in November. And the answer to that is still unclear.
Tuesday's results replicated much of the Democratic race during the last two months. Hillary Clinton once more showed her strength and Barack Obama's weakness among white working class voters in Midwestern swing states, while Obama proved his hold on young and college-educated voters in states where a new post-industrial economy has developed, and where college-educated voters make up about half of the Democratic electorate.
Russia is asserting its petro power, Chinese nationalism grows in response to criticism on Tibet, the dictators of Burma resist international aid, the crisis in Darfur is still raging, Iran continues to pursue a nuclear regime, and Robert Mugabe still clings violently to power in Zimbabwe. The world needs a league or concert of democratic nations.
The vision is grand, the reality less so. Russia's foreign policy has been merely assertive and reactive up till now. Will the new President manage something more constructive?
Bush promised to treat China like a "strategic competitor." However, despite the Department of Defense's continuing concerns about China's military buildup, the White House has backpedaled, leaving its China policy exactly the opposite of what Bush had promised. Nowhere is his retreat more obvious than on human rights, an issue Bush claims is the centerpiece of his presidency.
Washington's strategic confusion on the logic of NATO expansion to Georgia and Ukraine split the alliance, undermined democratic reforms abroad, and helped bring out the worst in Moscow's relations with the West. Washington should convince skeptics of its sincerity on the importance of democratic reforms by setting stringent political standards for potential members.
These days, Europeans are taking advantage of the cheap U.S. dollar to buy more than consumer electronics or real estate in the United States. They are also gobbling up all kinds of U.S. corporations -- a trend that will be far more permanent, consequential and politically charged than Europeans' widely noticed shopping sprees for gadgets or apartments.
Last summer, as Americans focused on the surge in Iraq, most ignored a military exercise with a potentially more far-reaching impact. In a remote location in the Ural Mountains, Russia, China, and several Central Asian nations gathered for a massive war game, ironically dubbed "Peace Mission 2007."
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