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There are six lessons of the Russia–Georgia crisis for Taiwan: (1) Be careful about security commitments; (2) Don’t provoke an antagonist and expect to be rescued; (3) A constructive relationship between America and major powers is essential to the security of vulnerable states; (4) Geography matters; (5) Speak softly when you don’t plan to carry a big stick; and (6) Credibility is global.
The nature of nations, like people, never changes. Today's political realists say economics rather than military might has become the guiding principle of countries, but the conflict in Georgia shows otherwise.
Although U.S.-Russia relations have deteriorated, options for cooperation still exist. Particularly in the area of nuclear nonproliferation, collaboration is essential and may be the best way to ameliorate relations. Russia, the U.S., and Europe should start with negotiating the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), which will provide a starting point for brokering a new consensus.
Unlike what has recently been alleged, the world is not experiencing a new Cold War. Today’s chill in U.S.-Russia relations rests on Russia’s belief that what is good for the West is inherently bad for Russia. Jumping headlong into a confrontation would be a bad idea though for the West. Instead, Western leaders should show that we can gain more from partnership.
The Russia-Georgia conflict is a watershed for a new era in geopolitics. As America scrambles to react to the crisis, Russia will continue to challenge Western influence in the former Soviet space. In turn, both will turn to Europe, and Europe’s ability to defend its own interests will be the most severe test yet for the Union. All the while, China, Iran and others watch with keen interest.
Russia's invasion of Georgia raises doubts about the common assumption that, in the post-Cold War world, geopolitical conflict will eventually be replaced by economic interdependence and cooperation. As countries like Russia and China begin to strengthen, however, this trend does not necessarily mean that America must relinquish its superpower status.
The search for a way for all parties in the Russia-Georgia conflict to sit down at the negotiating table is gradually beginning. There is real promise that an EU forum can establish an acceptable format and most likely, Russia is ready to make some concessions. Nevertheless, excessive pressure on Moscow will only strengthen its internal conservative forces and thus exacerbate its hard line stance.
Although in the short term the basis for a ceasefire has formed between Russia and Georgia, the conflict has entirely transformed the region. Russian peacekeepers can now no longer operate alone in the separatist regions. In addition, South Ossetia and Abkhazia cannot revert back to Georgia. Finally, the already deteriorating Russia-U.S. relationship will now face a new set of challenges.
A united Europe could play the pivotal peacemaker in the Russia-Georgia conflict, strengthening cooperation in the continent’s east. However, both unity and independent action on Europe’s part are unlikely. Therefore, the Russia policy of the next U.S. president will be essential for ensuring stability in the region.
The Russia-Georgia conflict has illustrated Russia’s new “containment policy” that is targeted towards the West. However, there is some evidence that the Russian elite may also be seeking some reconciliation. The real test of this notion will come if Ukraine insists on joining NATO, and the question of what to do with Crimea will have to be answered.
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