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As the Russia-Georgia ceasefire agreement takes shape, the consequences of the crisis for both countries are just now being explored. For Russia the possibility of territorial gain raises new challenges in its relations not just with NATO countries but with neighboring CIS and SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) states as well.
Although a ceasefire has been called by Russia and Georgia, the crisis is far from over. The U.S. could have prevented the conflict had it proactively sought out a solution for Abkhazia and South Ossetia months or years before. In addition, the U.S. should have strengthened its diplomatic relationship with Russia rather than allowing it to deteriorate.
Despite Western media coverage that paints Russia as solely responsible for the conflict in Georgia, the question of who is to blame is far less clear.
None of the Central Asian leaders like the idea of Russian hegemony, but the risk of anarchy and war in the border regions of Russia frighten them even more. They might not like the idea of Moscow as regional policeman, but in the absence of a viable alternative, they might swallow it more easily if Moscow turns into an effective one.
Robert Kagan argues that the Russian-Georgian conflict over the South Ossetia marks the official return of history to an almost 19th-century style of great-power competition, where military power is used to obtain geopolitical objectives.
Russia military campaign has capitalized on Georgia President Mikheil Saakashvili's missteps, and will seek regime change in Tbilisi even if the new leadership is still anti-Russian. Moscow's objective in the Caucasus is to restore its position as the predominant power in the face of Western encroachment.
Russia’s aggressive behavior in Georgia will have implications throughout the Caspian Sea Region, forcing Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to rethink their strategic priorities with the West. Russia has reasserted itself as the dominant player in the region and revealed how difficult it is for the U.S. to maintain a strategic position around the Caspian.
Russia’s response to Georgia’s large-scale military operation in South Ossetia transformed the conflict from a regional dispute over an obscure ethnic group into an emerging international crisis between Russia and the West. While Georgia may have succeeded in causing Russia to move in with heavy forces, the United States and Europe need to pause and think before following Saakashvili's script.
Alexander Solzhenitsyn was a premodern giant who defied the limits of human ability and the forces of nature. His world was that of ethical absolutes, unshakable values, spiritual discipline and self-sacrificial commitment.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev inherited a broken government bureaucracy unable to recruit skilled workers when he took office. Medvedev's proposed solution to create a national database of qualified candidates does not address the fact that there is no place for a truly transparent and merit-based recruiting process in Putin's political system.
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