Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The Obama administration must carefully balance its attempts to engage Iran on its nuclear program, Iraq, and Afghanistan with its need to support the Iranian opposition.
Over the past decade, the political and economic influence of the Revolutionary Guard has eclipsed that of the clergy. The Obama administration’s call for new, targeted sanctions would target the Revolutionary Guard without undermining Iran’s opposition movement.
The government’s successful crackdown on protestors on the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution may have dampened the opposition’s morale, but popular discontent in Iran has not diminished and the anniversary did not mark a significant change for either the regime or the opposition.
While the Iranian regime succeeded in preventing large scale demonstrations on February 11 by shutting down many of the mechanisms used by the opposition to communicate and mobilize, the movement remains vibrant and robust.
The 31st anniversary of the establishment of the Islamic Republic will provide another opportunity for demonstrations by the Iranian opposition movement, which must overcome not only the violent repression of the regime, but also divisions within its own ranks, if it is to achieve significant change in Iran.
As the Iranian regime continues to crackdown on the opposition movement, the Obama administration must consider how to deal with the looming Iranian nuclear threat without turning its back on the Iranian opposition.
As thousands of Iranians continue to take to the streets in protest, President Obama is presented with an opportunity to help support transformational democratic change within Iran.
The Obama administration is trying to reconcile its continuing diplomacy with the Iranian regime and its desire to show support and solidarity for the demands of the Iranian people.
Efforts to combat terrorism largely defined the global security agenda during the past decade, when small terrorist groups, with as few as three hundred active members, were able to inflict enormous amounts of damage on regional, national, and international scales.
While the Iranian public is still divided in its opinion on the regime, the high turnout at anti-government protests suggests that a majority, if not a vast majority, of people in Iran want to see a different type of government in Tehran.