Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Russia's foreign minister has now indicated that, because the West has come to Ukraine's rescue and provided significant military assistance, Russia now needs to seize even more territory and basically annex parts of Ukraine itself.
In Russia, the view is that on the battlefields of Ukraine, Russia is battling not only Ukraine itself, but also the West.
It's amazing how quickly one can destroy something, the trust allies had in the United States, and how long it takes to build back that trust.
But yes, this is a long war. It's a war of attrition, and it really depends on who gets exhausted first.
Decarbonization is key to delivering the energy transition, but it requires a massive increase in the mining and extraction of minerals like lithium, graphite, and cobalt. The countries that control these resources may be able to shape geopolitical power dynamics to their own advantage.
The war of attrition in Ukraine will continue until one side or the other expresses willingness to negotiate, but there might be earlier diplomatic breakthroughs: the UN is leading negotiations on getting Ukrainian grain out of its Black Sea ports.
A conversation on U.S. support for Ukraine.
The war in Ukraine is destroying the lives of millions of people far from the battlefield. The conflict is impacting millions of people across Africa, Asia and the Middle East and a food shortage is looming.
In the short-term, what we are going to see happen in direct reaction to the Russian war is that there is going to be a substitution of gas from other sources from the Middle East, the United States, North Africa, and other places for Russian gas.
Ukraine traditionally was closely integrated in the Soviet economy, and then the Russian economy. The military and industrial complex of the two countries were highly integrated until just the last decade.