Multiple crises have taken the international spotlight off Turkey. This, combined with Ankara’s contradictory foreign policy ambitions and rule-of-law deficiencies, limits the country’s global clout.

Moscow is pushing Ankara toward lasting antagonism with the rest of NATO by putting pressure on their economic and political ties. But the trend is not irreversible, and Turkey has proved it can adjust its policies to appease the West.

With the Turkish opposition’s stunning electoral upset on Sunday, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party are finally reaping the consequences of ill-considered macroeconomic policies. But the real winner of these critical local elections may be Turkish democracy.

Erdogan and his aides have wasted no time offering three reminders of the president’s power.

The outcome of Turkey’s vote will impact the country’s economy, governance, and international posture. A large victory of the ruling party would reinforce Erdogan’s personal power and strengthen his ties to Putin.

Turkey continues its balancing act, siding with the West on Ukraine but relying on Russia to pursue its ambitions of becoming a regional energy center. While progress toward bringing Turkey closer to the West will have its limits, there is scope for more cooperation between Brussels and Ankara.