Since Niger’s military ousted President Mohamed Bazoum in July 2023, Niger’s Arab neighbors to the north—Algeria and Libya—as well as nearby Tunisia have responded to the coup in a variety of ways.
Algeria’s position on the coup has been rather ambiguous, as it neither supported nor opposed military intervention in Niger. Instead, country maintained a neutral stance and positioned itself equidistant between Russia, which has been deepening ties with the military regime, and the United States and Western nations, which cut off aid to Niger and ended security cooperation with the regime following the coup.
The Algerians realize that supporting any form of intervention would strain their relations with Russia, the prominent new player in Africa and a long-standing ally of Algeria that played a crucial role in supporting their country during its war of liberation. Russia is also an important military partner that provides military training to the Algerian army and supplies more than two-thirds of the country’s weaponry.
But Algeria also recognizes that direct opposition to military intervention would jeopardize its interests in the West, where it has crucial energy and commercial partnerships. Data reveals that exports revenues for Algeria’s leading energy company, Sonatrach, reached an unprecedented level of $50 billion in 2022, up from the $15 billion in 2021. This surge can be attributed to heightened exchange with the European Union, driven by the dynamics of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the disruption it caused to Algeria’s energy exchange with Russia. Now, Algeria has become an energy alternative for several European countries: Italy, for example, aims to eliminate its dependence on energy imports from Russia by 2025—a transition made possible through agreements forged with Algeria.
Another significant factor shaping Algeria's neutral stance is its fear of a potential military eruption in the region, as made clear by its call for dialogue and a peaceful resolution in Niger. Algeria remains acutely aware of the potential security ramifications of armed conflict, including irregular migration, the proliferation of armed gangs, and an elevated threat of terrorism. Given its proximity to Niger, these consequences could directly impact Algeria's security.
All of these factors pushed Algeria in October to offer to mediate a six-month transition to resolve Niger’s political crisis—which Algeria initially announced that Niger had accepted, but then was rejected by Niger’s military regime.
The Tunisian stance, on the other hand, was much clearer. Tunisia unequivocally condemned the coup and emphasized the importance of upholding constitutional legitimacy, ensuring security, and rejecting armed conflict. In a public statement, the Tunisian Foreign Ministry urged “all parties to uphold electoral legitimacy, safeguard the political stability of the Republic of Niger, and prevent further deterioration of the situation.” The statement also underscored Tunisia’s fear of “heightened instability in the region, which is already grappling with political, security, economic, and social crises.”
Ghazi Moalla, a Tunisian expert on Libyan affairs, suggests that Tunisia is particularly concerned about the possibility that thousands of migrants and terrorists cross the Tunisian border through neighboring countries that share borders with Niger. According to Moalla, the escalation of the situation in Niger could lead to a surge in the flow of illegal migrants across the Libyan and Algerian borders, especially after coup leaders overturned a law in November that criminalized migrant smuggling and reopened a migrant portal in Agadez in January. Given Niger’s population of approximately 20 million people, he estimates that this influx could potentially reach into the tens of thousands, subsequently impacting Tunisia. This is in addition to the threat of terrorist groups that emerge from the instability in Niger, and could advance into Libya and Algeria—posing a more immediate danger to Tunisia.
Like the Tunisians, the Libyans also advocated for the respect of constitutional legitimacy and refrained from endorsing armed conflicts. Libyan Prime Minister Dbeibeh firmly rejected any actions that might “compromise the stability of the region.” Dbeibeh announced that Libya intends to adopt a proactive approach to the conflict, and explicitly communicated his willingness to engage in peaceful mediation efforts, aligning with neighboring countries of Niger that are not a part of the Economic Community of West Africa (ECOWAS), which include Libya, Chad, and Algeria. To address security concerns, Libya has taken concrete measures to bolster its military forces and tighten its controls along the border with Niger.
Going forward, the positions that each of the three countries will take regarding Niger’s political situation will hinge on the economic and security risks they face. The nature of their positions may evolve, transitioning from mere condemnation to a more procedural approach, or even entering military alliances or aligning with specific camps.
Majed Karoui is a Ph.D. candidate in political sociology at the Faculty of Arts, Sfax, Tunisia
