The new executive authority is unlikely to transcend Libya’s institutional divisions, nor break with well-established patterns of intense factional competition within the government.
Sada asked experts to analyze potential flash points for the next U.S. administration—ranging from the globalization of Libya’s war to the ongoing conflicts in Syria and Yemen, the Arab-Israeli conflict, and increasing authoritarianism and violations of civil liberties and human rights.
The shifting relationships between armies and civil society are revealing new balances within defense structures.
Russia’s increased involvement in Libya marks a turning point in the conflict, making an Ankara-Kremlin rapprochement all the more likely.
Haftar’s ability to frame coups as “wars on terror” ensures his international support, but masks a destructive manipulation of tribal dynamics.
Libya’s escalating war is changing political realities, necessitating a new framework for conflict resolution and power sharing.
In order to secure its economic interests in Libya, Russia is seeking to bolster Haftar’s influence over a future UN-brokered diplomatic settlement.
Sisi’s efforts to broker the reunification of the Libyan army are less about stabilizing its neighbor than empowering Khalifa Haftar against shared Islamist foes.
Rather than making North Africa safer, securitizing borders has raised the risk of instability along the region’s frontiers, where communities depend on smuggling.
To maintain his reputation as Libya’s only savior, Haftar is now more likely to make dramatic moves against declared enemies and inside his own camp.
The presence of foreign armed groups in Libya’s south poses an increasing threat to local security and regional political ties.
Although Maghreb states have tended to pursue border security unilaterally, increased transnational coordination at the local level offers a more sustainable approach.
Ghassan Salamé’s action plan for Libya faces numerous obstacles from entrenched political elites, who see it as just another venue in which to seek personal gain.
Without an accompanying roadmap and buy-in from the population, a referendum on Libya’s draft constitution risks leaving Libya’s crisis of legitimacy unresolved.
To address the Mediterranean migrant crisis, the EU is seeking closer partnerships with North African states.
Russia’s support for Khalifa Haftar in the name of countering terrorism could instead escalate Libya’s conflict and undermine the UN-sponsored political process.
The flow of migrants to Europe has increased dramatically over the past year even as their trips become more dangerous.
Sada contributors share their take on what the extraordinary election of Donald Trump could mean for a region in turmoil.
Libyans and their international partners can unite against the Islamic State, but external political and military engineering is undermining the prerequisite nation building.
Military and police forces are gradually regaining strength in Benghazi after two years of frequent assassinations.