Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Under increasing financial pressure, states hosting Syrian refugees are pressuring them to return whether conditions in Syria are safe or not.
As Riyadh’s rivalry with Tehran in the Levant turns to Lebanon, its increasing pressure on Hezbollah threatens to severely destabilize the country.
Hezbollah’s branding of its Arsal offensive as a victory for all Lebanese further undermines the Lebanese state as a political and security actor.
While the new Lebanese electoral law introduces a few reforms, it entrenches sectarianism and favors big parties and established politicians.
Despite the inherent challenges of finding a long-term solution to Lebanon’s refugee crisis, its focus on short-term responses could worsen social and political cleavages and foster new forms of marginalization.
Hezbollah and Russia have enjoyed close cooperation in Syria, but their military successes could undermine Hezbollah’s hopes of playing a major role in the country post-conflict.
In their emerging entente, Geagea and Aoun may restore their political relevance and catalyze Christian consolidation.
A new U.S. law targeting Hezbollah’s finances is creating more uncertainty in Lebanon’s banking sector and could have wider economic consequences.
Sada launches its first eBook, a collection of essays that explores the region’s deep political changes since the Arab uprisings.
In Ain al-Hilweh, Islamist militants are working alongside the PLO and pro-Syrian factions to prevent allies of the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra from dragging the camp into war.
More coordination between international donors, the public sector, and civil society actors could fill gaps in education for Syrian refugees in Lebanon.
Saudi Arabia’s recent moves against Hezbollah and the Lebanese government could end up weakening its own allies and further destabilizing the Lebanese political arena.
Working side-by-side with Russian officers in Syria is sure to improve Hezbollah’s offensive fighting capabilities.
Saad Hariri’s attempt to split the March 8 alliance by endorsing Sleiman Frangieh for president has instead divided March 14 and complicated Lebanon’s search for a president.
Lebanon’s government is betting that a new waste plan and a national dialogue to elect a president will end ongoing protests by the “You Stink” movement.
Amid rising terror threats, meaningful security sector reform risks being delayed indefinitely.
Free Patriotic Movement protests are just the latest of Michel Aoun’s tactics to secure the presidency and empower his party.
New rules restricting the entry of Syrians into Lebanon are only a stopgap measure in the government’s effort to curb and ultimately control the refugee population.
The inability of the Lebanese state to figure out where Arsal stands has made public and state perceptions increasingly hostile toward the town.
Lebanon has so far avoided an economic and security collapse since the start of the Syrian crisis, but major challenges remain.