Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
As Russia weathers a fourth surge of COVID-19 cases, the country’s management of the public health challenge has yet to improve. What factors led the country here, and what does this mean for the Putin regime and the Russian people going forward?
Civil society groups are simultaneously responding to the pandemic’s direct impacts and looking to a post-pandemic future. Many economic, political, and geostrategic challenges are shaping their thinking and their strategies.
Efforts are being made to ramp up production of COVID-19 vaccines in Africa to address the continent’s low rate of vaccination. As of September 2021, there are at least twelve COVID-19 production facilities set up or in the pipeline across six African countries.
As Indonesia reels under staggering rates of COVID-19, an ambitious mass inoculation drive offers hope. But limited access to effective vaccines is trapping the Asian giant in an impossible choice between saving lives and livelihoods.
Russian scientists rolled out the country’s COVID-19 vaccine last summer, beating Western vaccine producers to the finish line. But scarce data, broken promises, and corruption have led the vaccine to lose its luster.
The United States and many other countries have rushed to send aid to India as the country battles the coronavirus pandemic. But U.S. President Joe Biden needs to focus his administration’s attention on unblocking the congested vaccine supply chain further downstream.
India has suffered a devastating new wave of infection from the coronavirus pandemic. As the country races to vaccinate its huge population, what challenges does it face?
The COVID-19 crisis in India is devastating. The Biden administration must consider exceptions to the Defense Production Act and ease the global vaccine supply chain.
This episode looks at the domestic and international reception of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine.
The world needs to take decisive action to ensure that COVID-19 vaccine stockpiling in wealthy countries does not leave Africans without the doses they need.
After the undignified scramble for protective equipment in the pandemic’s early stages, the EU’s collective approach to coronavirus vaccines was the right strategy—even if avoidable mistakes were made.
In an interview, Salim Adib discusses Lebanon’s management of Covid-19, and expresses some hope for the future.
International politics saw a surge in new words and a return of old expressions. Going through some of them gives us a flavor of the year of 2020, which few of us will look back to with nostalgia.*
The coronavirus has devastated fragile and conflict-affected states, exacerbating suffering and, in some cases, shifting power dynamics in ways that are likely to influence politics or the conflicts even when the pandemic subsides.
The rollout of coronavirus vaccines across Europe is imminent. But the EU should seize the opportunity to also share the vaccines with Africa, which would boost mutual trust and the EU’s soft power.
In an interview, Sherif Mohyeldeen discusses the challenges of healthcare in Egypt’s border areas.
The coronavirus has been a wake-up call for global civil society. It will come out of the pandemic looking very different—and this change will be a significant factor in a now highly fluid international politics.
The pandemic is spurring elite and grassroots civic actors to cooperate more, but the gulf between them remains wide. Civic actors must seize the opportunity for reform on open government issues.
Women participating in politics have navigated unique challenges and opportunities from the coronavirus pandemic. Governments around the world should take these steps to safeguard women’s political inclusion during the pandemic and beyond.
Pouring money into health infrastructure will have little effect if qualified doctors have few incentives to stay.
No matter who sits in the White House come January 2021, Europe must grow up and take responsibility to rebuild multilateralism, fix the transatlantic relationship, and revive arms control.
Many countries in the Middle East and North Africa still struggle to manage the coronavirus, but Morocco’s response suggests an important evolution in civil-military relations.
The American University of Beirut can serve as an example to a crisis-ridden higher education sector in the United States.
Egypt’s recent security and macro-economic stabilization has been built on weak foundations and Covid-19 has further exposed this fragility.
In the chaotic early weeks of the pandemic, when Europe was ground zero for the international spread of the coronavirus, European unity seemed a distant prospect. But Merkel’s leadership combined with a gigantic recovery fund have helped the EU bounce back.
The EU has muddled along for years despite a problematic mismatch between its central powers and those of individual member countries. Now, a multi-billion-euro recovery fund has forced the bloc to grasp the nettle.
In Egypt, coronavirus response efforts were led by the prime minister and other technocrats. What does this change mean for Egypt—and how long will it last?
Neither values nor geopolitics played any role when EU leaders agreed to spend their way out of the coronavirus crisis at a marathon summit. Once again, Europe as a strategic player has been postponed.*
Europe is immersed in the world around it. But in order to strengthen the EU’s global role, the European Council will need to understand the deep connection between domestic struggles and international ambitions.
Countries with populist governments have been especially badly hit by the coronavirus pandemic. But beware: the virus is unlikely to kill off populism. To rid the world of populism, its root causes must be addressed.
The pandemic is having distinctive political implications across different types of regime. Policy responses need to be tailored to these contrasting outcomes and risks in the way they seek to advance and uphold democratic rights.
Alexander Gabuev is joined by Dmitri Trenin and Elena Chernenko to discuss what impact the global pandemic has had—and will continue to have—on Russian foreign policy.
Iraq’s military responses to the coronavirus pandemic are diverse: creating more tension in Shia civil-military relations, buildingtrust in Sunni civil-military relations, and pushing the government to emphasize sovereignty over externally fueled partisanship.
Sitting on China’s doorstep, Southeast Asia initially seemed especially vulnerable but is so far coping comparatively well with the coronavirus pandemic. Yet this resilience—long a hallmark of the region’s politics—comes with some grim downsides.
One of the greatest achievements of U.S. foreign policy has been targeted by a vicious disinformation campaign.
Surprisingly, France has not yet witnessed major controversies on the issue of external support to third countries during the coronavirus pandemic.
A successful coronavirus response and liberalized trade policies have given Vietnam a production boost, but its demographics and import dependence will limit its gains from a reshuffled supply chain.
Russia is rapidly approaching a situation in which the public will lose the right to decide anything once and for all, because the authorities simply have no remaining political will or the resources to persuade the people.
Two key mobilizing events—the vote to change the constitution and the Victory Day parade—were supposed to force Russians to temporarily forget about their low incomes and stagnating GDP. The pandemic meant they had to be postponed. Now—as lockdown measures are lifted—the Kremlin is trying to return to the scenario of rallying around the flag.
Increased coronavirus infection rates among Russian churchgoers could seriously damage attitudes toward Orthodoxy for a long time. The state has also seen for itself that the church is unable to deal with its own flock.
While the principal concern about democracy during the coronavirus pandemic has been that European governments will be tempted to hold on to their new executive powers, pressure to restore democracy may now be propelling a predatory and polarized politics.
The Indian government’s COVID-19 economic package is smaller than the government is touting, and cloaked in a lot of self-reliance rhetoric that multinationals hear as protectionism. A slow economic recovery may hurt the BJP at the state level, but is unlikely to nationally.
In trying to shirk responsibility for the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, the Russian leadership is destroying the loyal majority it spent years building.
As European countries emerge from lockdown, Europe needs to prepare for the geostrategic shifts that will take place in the post-coronavirus world.
Russia’s ineffective response to the coronavirus reveals the hazards of a system that cultivates self-interest and cronyism over strong state capacity and administration.
The U.S. government must act decisively to support worldwide efforts to contain the second-order consequences of the pandemic in fragile and conflict-affected countries.
The silver lining to the uncertainty and chaos of the coronavirus pandemic is that EU member states are more aware than ever of the need for cooperation.
The coronavirus pandemic is changing perspectives on governance and how armed forces interact with society, but nowhere is this more salient than in the Arab world.
Faced with no shortage of domestic challenges, Erdogan is expanding Turkey’s role in the Eastern Mediterranean—and antagonizing Europe in turn.
While experiments with enhanced online instruction may offer opportunities for efficiencies, the most important opportunity that the coronavirus shock presents is an opportunity to rethink the political economy of the entire higher education system, and reshape it to fit the challenges of the twenty-first century.
With the pandemic messing up the Brexit negotiations and weakening the British prime minister, prospects for a wide-ranging UK-EU deal by the end of 2020 are vanishing fast.
The 2020 coronavirus pandemic is the deadliest public health threat in a century and perhaps the most consequential event since the Second World War. It is not only an epidemiological threat, but a systemic crisis affecting the political, social, and economic structures of modern life.
The Chinese handling of the COVID-19 crisis clearly shows both the strengths and weaknesses of Beijing’s crisis management system. While the system remains excessively bureaucratic and consensus-driven, it also has standard, thorough, and well-organized crisis management practices that, once set in motion, in general operate very effectively.
Germany is emerging from the first phase of the pandemic with some scars, but broadly in good shape. When Berlin takes over the EU presidency, Chancellor Angela Merkel will have to show the way toward a reinvigorated and more dynamic EU.
The temporary freezing of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s declining approval ratings will likely end when Ukraine begins to feel the coronavirus pandemic’s socioeconomic fallout.
The old rules of Belarus and Russia’s alliance may no longer apply. Will the two neighbors find a way to update them?
From arms control to trade, the post-1945 order is crumbling fast. To protect its democratic way of life, Europe must create new global alliances built to deal with a post-pandemic world.
India’s unprecedented lockdown exposed deep issues in the government’s ability to care for its most precariously situated citizens. Yet, according to survey data, even among the most deprived people surveyed, the government has mechanisms to transfer essential goods and services.
Divisions dating to the June 2017 split among Gulf Cooperation Council states have shaped the region’s contrasting approaches to political messaging and public health in a time of observance.
In South Asia, the coronavirus pandemic is at once a public health crisis, an economic crisis, and a humanitarian crisis.
A discussion of India’s battle to contain the novel coronavirus, the Modi government’s latest economic package, and the pandemic’s foreign policy fall-out.
Kuwait was known as the “Pearl of the Gulf” until a major crisis hit – its 1990-91 occupation by Iraq. Now a second crisis provides a golden opportunity for Kuwait to up its game and recover its status.
For a European Union with geopolitical ambitions, revamping its Iran policy into a regional Gulf strategy would be a good place to start.
Early in the outbreak, government researchers forecast several high-risk scenarios that were downplayed or ignored in public messaging.
While the coronavirus crisis has helped UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s approval rating, it hasn’t helped his party, and British voters are now losing faith in the government’s handling of it.
Europe is well placed to push for reforms of global cooperation and governance after the coronavirus pandemic. But to do that, Europe itself must change first.
By trying to manage the financial fallout of the coronavirus without also providing democratic reform, the EU will unleash another cycle of the legitimacy problems it has suffered since the eurozone crisis.
School closures have highlighted the digital gap between those who can access remote learning and those without the basic means to do so.
The fight against the coronavirus has sparked a political revival for Angela Merkel. Now, the German chancellor must also adopt a coherent foreign policy strategy for how to deal with China.
The coronavirus crisis in Syria has created political openings for Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
Women in Colombia who support and empower their communities, often against organized violence, face unique and gendered threats. The coronavirus pandemic has made them even more acute.
The EU must seize on the strategic opportunity presented by the coronavirus pandemic to take the initiative away from Russia and Turkey in Libya.
The Lebanese armed forces’ Covid-19 response has been a success, but potential problems remain.
The coronavirus pandemic threatens U.S. hegemony in new, deadly ways.
Many protest movements have adapted to coronavirus-related restrictions as they fold new public health and economic concerns into their lists of governance grievances.
The overriding reason for career public servants like Birx and Fauci to remain on the job is to influence the work from the inside.
Polarization is straining democracies around the world, but effective governance and mobilization during the crisis could help narrow social divides.
To avoid becoming part of a Sino-centric power bloc and maintain international equilibrium, which is critically important to Russia’s status and self-image, Moscow must reduce its dependence on China by fostering its relations with other large economic and financial players: primarily European countries, India, and Japan.
For Europe, the internal economic shock created by the coronavirus is set to be compounded by an external security shock triggered by the economic collapse of its neighborhood.
The coronavirus pandemic will harm European defense strategically, politically, and financially. To mitigate these consequences, Europeans must start shaping joint and immediate answers.
A regular survey of experts on matters relating to Middle Eastern and North African politics and security.
While the Trump administration is consumed with the coronavirus, China and North Korea are seizing the moment for strategic advantage.
The coronavirus pandemic has only made U.S. relations with Europe worse, but there is still time to right the ship.
Indonesia’s coronavirus response has been set back by misplaced priorities and a distrust of data. Without a course correction, the country could pay steep long-term costs.
Economies in the Middle East and North Africa are suffering from supply chain problems due to the coronavirus.
The longer-term consequences of the coronavirus will include the further intensification of U.S.-Chinese rivalry, and the emerging Sino-American bipolarity. Russia’s top priority should be to carefully maintain equilibrium—though not equidistance—between the United States and China.
The coronavirus creates opportunities for leaders to bridge divides in politically polarized countries. While some have risen to that challenge, in many places, the crisis has aggravated political polarization, with dangerous consequences for public health, democracy, and vulnerable groups.
As the Indian government prepares to gradually dial down the economic freeze on May 3, politics, too, must emerge from its hibernation.
Lebanon’s economy was collapsing, until the coronavirus lockdown made matters even worse.
Overcoming the coronavirus pandemic is also about the EU defending its own principles of transparency and truthfulness, both of which China is aggressively challenging.
In an interview, Ahmed Nagi discusses the dangers of the coronavirus in a country already facing a terrible conflict.
Nationalist and protectionist impulses have hampered the exchanges of knowledge and goods that foster economic growth. Similar failures of global coordination are now exacerbating the coronavirus pandemic.
Egypt’s military has allowed civilians to lead the coronavirus response, but some things are troubling.
While countries worldwide have announced lockdowns to block the coronavirus, North African governments are using the opportunity to further quell freedom of expression and advance their agendas. Will civil society stand their ground?
How to deal with the economic costs of the coronavirus is dividing the eurozone countries once again.
A regular survey of experts on matters relating to Middle Eastern and North African politics and security.
The kingdom’s national history, geopolitical competition, and future vision have all shaped its approach to the coronavirus. The Islamic holy month will underscore how long-standing traditions have changed.
The impact of the coronavirus in the Middle East has led to shifts in the nature of authoritarianism.
Hackers are taking advantage of the coronavirus pandemic. An international coalition must be created—and soonest—to prevent nefarious actors from exacerbating the crisis.
The coronavirus is catalyzing new forms of civic activism. International supporters of civil society should step up their efforts to bolster these local responses.
The coronavirus pandemic has prompted renewed global debate over the use of technology to monitor and protect the public. Host Alex Gabuev is joined by Leonid Kovachich, Paul Stronski, and Steven Feldstein.
The slump in gas prices will create plenty of problems, but at the same time it could provide a much-needed purging of an industry that in recent years has seen increasingly absurd projects unveiled for pipelines and LNG terminals.
The coronavirus crisis has impacted Moscow’s Middle Eastern policies, while also creating opportunities.
To contain the coronavirus, Arab governments are mobilizing official Islamic institutions. The most pressing goal is to shut down sites of potential contagion as Ramadan approaches.
The way autocratic regimes make use of the coronavirus pandemic is disrupting democracy and governance worldwide. Turkey is no exception.
The coronavirus pandemic is another opportunity that Moscow is using to engage Washington in an attempt to break through the logjams in their relationship.
Even as the economic impact of the pandemic deepens, Putin is unlikely to walk back his signature interventions abroad.
The new coronavirus is spreading into conflict-affected states. The pandemic and efforts to contain it are much more likely to aggravate and multiply conflicts than reduce or end them.
With the coronavirus pandemic challenging European democracies, not only with help from China and Russia but also from within, Europe must prepare an exit strategy.
The crisis atmosphere of the coronavirus response raises the risks of corruption as aid flows to graft-prone healthcare systems. But it’s not too late to put safeguards in place.
Arab states will struggle with the aftermath of the coronavirus, but only inclusiveness will bring about their recovery.
The coronavirus pandemic is generating all kinds of conspiracy theories, while Russia and China use it to sow distrust and uncertainty, fear and divisions across Europe.
Despite ongoing public dissatisfaction with the government, Algerians, along with much of the global population, remain confined to their homes.
The authorities in Algeria are exploiting the coronavirus lockdown to stifle the country’s protest movement.
The novel coronavirus has turned Donald Trump’s overreliance on sanctions into an immediate threat to the health and well-being of the American people.
In the face of the global health crisis, the kingdom is bringing back traditional policy approaches that the crown prince had brushed aside in his “new Saudi Arabia.”
The fight against the new coronavirus in Russia is being led not by politicians oriented on the public mood, but by managers serving their boss. This is why the authorities’ actions appear first insufficient, then excessive; first belated, then premature.
Putin’s move to extend his rule beyond its expected end in 2024 has worked against the president. Meanwhile, the new coronavirus and falling ruble have proved more effective than any action by the opposition aimed at damaging Putin’s ratings.
In an interview, Marwan Muasher looks at the long-term impact of the new coronavirus on the Middle East and North Africa.
The coronavirus pandemic will likely have a transformative impact on multiple dimensions of democratic politics and on governance more broadly. Global leaders should prepare to respond quickly.
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