Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
This is a dangerous moment for the Middle East, because the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon could easily escalate to involve the broader region. Any strategy to address the present crisis must deal with the realities of the Middle East as they are now, not try to leapfrog over them by seeking to impose a grand new vision. Such a vision would be bound to fail as it did in the case of Iraq.
Over the last few decades most, if not all, Arab-Israeli crises have occurred when the United States has been either unable or unwilling to play an aggressive role as a mediator; and most have only abated after the United States has finally thrown itself into the middle of them.
The regime of Bashar al-Asad is under pressure from Syrian citizens who want a different political system and from the United States, which wants Syria to change its regional policy. As a result, it is impossible to separate completely a domestic process of political reform from the external pressures.
The Russian government has resorted to police practices strongly reminiscent of those used some three decades ago in the Soviet Union. Putin wants recognition of Russia's leading position on the world scene and respect for its economic and geopolitical interests. But he demands that it be recognized as is, not at the cost of softening his increasingly authoritarian policies.
For the last two decades, Soviet and the Russian leaders worked with Western leaders to integrate the former Soviet empire, and above all else Russia, into the western community of states. To accelerate integration, it is necessary to fortify those multilateral institutions in which Russia is already a member and invent new security institutions that help face common enemies.
U.S. and European officials are voicing their concern over Russia's domestic political situation and its relations with the former Soviet republics. Washington must understand that positive change in Russia can only come from within and that economic realities, rather than democratic ideals, will be the vehicle for that change.
China's soft power strategy hopes to promote its image as a benign power, while reducing Taiwanese and American regional influence. By these criteria, China has been successful. In order to protect its position in Southeast Asia, the U.S. needs to improve its public diplomacy in the region, as the Chinese have proven adept at doing.
Carnegie President Jessica Tuchman Mathews discusses U.S.-Iran Relations and whether war with Iran would help or hurt U.S. national security.
China’s investments in Sudan and Burma have come under harsh criticism of late. Energy-hungry China will need to be convinced that bad governance in places like Burma or Sudan fosters instability that is bad for Chinese investment before it will rein in its rogue client states.
The debate over the nuclear deal negotiated by the Bush Administration and the government of India is too narrow. If other alternatives are not explored, there is a risk that Asia will experience a dangerous and costly build up of nuclear arsenals – a nuclear bubble much more dangerous than housing or stock market bubbles.