Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
If the United States, China, South Korea, Japan and Russia can reach a basic understanding on how to handle North Korea, the effort to convince Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear weapons program and accept a reasonable "more-for-more" agreement, while not easy, should enjoy a reasonable chance of success.
The latest invasion of Iraq will unleash a new cycle of hatred—unless the United States can find ways to bolster the credibility of moderate Islamic thinkers.
Increasing oil production in Iraq will not alleviate the potential problems in other important oil producing regions, including West Africa, Latin America, and new producers in the Caspian region. The United States must anticipate energy security threats from these regions and prepare for them in advance.
The United States must hand over power to Iraqis sooner rather than later, helping them rebuild their nation without imposing leaders or ideologies. A democratic Iraq will probably have a strong Islamic and Arab nationalist character. But efforts to dilute Iraq's Arab or Islamic identity would risk an extremist backlash.
Long before September 11, before the first inspections in Iraq had started, a small group of influential officials and experts in Washington were calling for regime change in Iraq. Some never wanted to end the 1991 war. Many are now administration officials. Their organization, dedication and brilliance offer much to admire, even for those who disagree with the policies they advocate.
Next week Jiang Zemin is expected formally to cede the presidency to Hu Juntao. Will China's low-profile foreign policy change too? It is time the leadership re-evaluated the geopolitical assumptions underlying Chinese foreign policy.
The Bush administration's plan for post-invasion Iraq is a blueprint for occupation but not for political reconstruction. Unless the profound difference between occupation and reconstruction is recognized early on, the U.S. will fail to create a stable Iraq, let alone one that serves as a model for other countries. Chaos there will mean the continued threat of terrorism and regional instability.
Protesters who marched around the world last week were wrong to assume that American inaction against Iraq will make their children safer or the Iraqi people better off. The protesters were right, however, to question whether war against Iraq will produce more security at home and real freedom for the Iraqi people.
There will certainly be a regional reaction to the U.S. invasion of Iraq, but it will not be a wave of democratic revolutions. We just have to look back at the previous efforts of empires with the best of intentions -- the British, the French, and the Germans -- to understand what happens when Western nations try to bring "civilization" to the Middle East on the points of their bayonets.
While America is focused on fighting terror, it has turned the attention of policy makers and citizens away from Northeast Asia. China is no longer seen as the primary threat to the US. This has given China room to wield a new foreign policy in the region that establishes China's influence. Meanwhile, Russia and China are growing farther apart.