Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Kyrgyzstan is really coming to a turning point. Any further deterioration in its political conditions will justifiably earn it the label of an authoritarian state. Many already consider it to be one, although most would grant that it is the softest of the region's authoritarian regimes.
The new US military presence in Uzbekistan is one more sign of how the dominant geopolitical paradigms of the last half of the twentieth century are no longer operative. The Cold War and its aftermath post-Cold War period are at an end.
If the U.S-Russian relationship stabilizes and an agreement is reached on missile defenses, Russia’s nuclear arsenal could dip as low as 1,000 weapons by 2010, allowing the U.S. to pursue deep cuts. It is unlikely, however, that Washington’s current position on missile defenses, the ABM Treaty, or negotiated arms control will create the environment needed for these reductions to materialize.
Contrary to the belief of many American pundits, the Taliban are not a foreign force imposed on Afghanistan. While they are indeed hated by many Afghans, they also have enjoy deeply rooted support fed both by religion and by Pashtun nationalism. This support has if anything grown stronger as a result of the bombing campaign.
Putin's pro-American plan was not simply tactical. Putin's policies of support after September 11, including his agreement to an American military presence in Central Asia, represented a significant shift in Russian foreign policy. The potential for breakthrough - for a fundamentally new and improved relationship between Russia and the West - has never been greater.
It is important to have partners in the war on terrorism, Carnegie's Robert Kagan writes, but a unilateral determination to act invariably precedes a policy of effective multilateralism.
A strong sense of righteousness has always been present in the American tradition, but until September 11, an acute sense of persecution by the outside world was usually the preserve of the paranoid Right. Now it has spread and some rather important ideas have almost vanished from the public debate.
Can the United States win a war on terrorism while winking at some terrorists and cozying up to nations that support them? Can the United States effectively fight terrorism and reward terrorism at the same time? You shouldn't have to ponder those questions very long. The certain answer is no.
Western Europe badly needs a new relationship with Russia - and not simply because of a shared interest in the fight against terrorism. Equally important is the fact that new US priorities may lead to a significant diminution of American interest in the Balkans and parts of the former Soviet Union.
The war on anti-American terrorism must target Hezbollah, the terrorist group backed by Iran and Syria, as well as the Taliban. And it must include a determined effort to remove Saddam Hussein from power, by supporting the Iraqi opposition and, if necessary, by using American military force to complete the tragically unfinished task begun in Operation Desert Storm a decade ago.