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In a special live broadcast of the BBC’s The World Tonight program, Carnegie experts assessed the foreign policy priorities facing President-elect Barack Obama. The wide-ranging discussion focused on issues from Iraq, climate change, and the Middle East peace process, to Russia and Iran.
Successive U.S. administrations have forfeited the chance to integrate Russia into the West first afforded by the collapse of Communism and again by 9/11. The United States has either neglected Russia or openly disregarded its overtures and warnings on a range of regional concerns. President-elect Obama needs a comprehensive approach to Russia based on a shared vision of European security.
Although China has captured the world's attention because of its impressive growth rates, its economy remains smaller than Japan's. Some analysts argue that the United States has engaged China at the expense of disengaging from Japan. Japanese Ambassador to the United States, Ichiro Fujisaki, offer a perspective on Japan's role in Asia.
Women's leadership in international security is moving from the sidelines to center court, but the bench is not deep enough, and too many women are taking themselves out of the game. President-elect Obama’s administration should draw on the pool of talented women to bring fresh perspective to his international security team.
"Global Zero" has become a well-known slogan to revive the decades-old idea of eliminating all nuclear weapons. Interest in abolition has been renewed by the concern that the use of nuclear weapons could become ever more likely. With nuclear deterrence we bought time, but it would be a tremendous mistake to believe that deterrence will always work.
Despite his campaign promises, Obama’s initial foreign policy might not differ dramatically from Bush’s policies of the last two years. After failures during his first six years in office, Bush has struck a more diplomatic tone in recent years. Obama, who has tapped several Bush administration veterans for his own national security team, is likely to continue on this increasingly diplomatic path.
Many issues will force themselves onto the new administration’s Middle East agenda. This commentary will only focus on security in the Arabian Gulf in view of Iran’s nuclear program and Obama’s exit strategy from Iraq. For 30 years the Gulf region has been volatile for two reasons: the imbalance of military power, which is the result of strictly political factors, and the U.S. military presence.
The most important issue to test how differently Obama will approach foreign policy is Iran and its nuclear program, both of which top U.S. and Middle East priorities. Obama’s willingness to hold direct talks with the Iranians is one reason for the positive perception of him among Arabs.
Just as Guantánamo's legal and geographic isolation from the United States denies its prisoners recourse to the American judicial system, it also denies its military administrators the benefits of the most current research on how to de-radicalize prisoners and reintegrate them into society.
Pakistan may be forfeiting its sovereignty if it is incapable of cracking down on militants like those that launched the recent Mumbai attacks. As it appears increasingly unlikely that the Pakistani civilian government will be able to crack down effectively, the international community should intervene to protect Pakistan’s neighbors from the threat posed by Pakistani-based terrorists.
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