Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
EU-UK cooperation on foreign policy will be hampered by the emotional and political fallout from a difficult divorce and boosted by a renewed transatlantic relationship. In the longer term, external challenges and the internal policy trends will determine the scope for working together.
Rosa Balfour speaks about German Chancellor Angela Merkel threatening to assert federal control over measures to stem the pandemic and picking a legal fight that reflects the gravity of the latest surge in infections.
Europe’s messy handling of the second and third waves of the coronavirus pandemic and the stalling of vaccination programs highlight the EU’s deep contradictions. The union’s ability to bounce back—let alone bounce back better—is now in question.
Brexit is destabilizing Northern Ireland. London’s pursuit of a hard Brexit and the return of border politics could unravel the historic 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which ended the province’s conflict. It might need the United States to rescue the accord.
Germany is struggling to contain a pandemic that has laid bare intrinsic weaknesses of Europe’s largest economy and its once indomitable leader. The next German chancellor won’t have much time to repair the damage.
Jan Litynski, a leading dissident under Poland’s communist regime and later a passionate defender of the rule of law, will be buried on March 10 in Warsaw. The values and principles he fought for are now under threat more than ever before.
While strategic autonomy seems firmly set to guide EU foreign policy, it carries significant risks—especially for democratic values. If it takes autonomy too far, the EU may find itself less able to advance, and achieve, its foreign policy goals.
It should, but it won’t. The EU’s post-pandemic recovery fund will help the union’s economies get off the ground. But as for integrating Europe’s foreign, security, and digitization policies, the political will and strategic ambition are absent.
Ankara’s goal in dealing with Europe is to limit the future agenda to trade, economic matters, and refugee arrangements. In a diminishing space for civil society, academic freedom, and human rights, EU leaders are divided over what strategy to pursue with Turkey.
EU defense integration has been plagued by the issue of sovereignty and progress in high-end capability development has moved at a snail’s pace. What is needed is a clear, overarching strategic vision for European security and defense.