Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Increasing oil production in Iraq will not alleviate the potential problems in other important oil producing regions, including West Africa, Latin America, and new producers in the Caspian region. The United States must anticipate energy security threats from these regions and prepare for them in advance.
Major impediments to a unified energy strategy do not come from Russia. The dynamics of interstate relations between Russia, Caspian, and other transit states, and domestic politics in any of these states, decrease the likelihood of any singular, meaningful international energy development strategy.
In contrast to Kyoto—which tries to construct a comprehensive global architecture all at once—the United States should proceed step by step, starting with domestic action and then moving outward, beginning with like-minded states. It should initially address fewer greenhouse gases and use relatively simple procedures.
The United States cannot afford to disengage from Central Asia, as September 11th so clearly demonstrated. Further, unlike other authoritarian regimes closer to Europe, Belarus for example, Kazakhstan is in particular need of U.S. attention. U.S. engagement must include working not only with leaders and regimes but also with ordinary citizens.
The development of Russian energy exports is not driven by geopolitical considerations, as many believe; instead they correspond to companies' strategies of profit-maximization. This pattern of "the flag following the trade" can be observed in each of the three energy sectors--electrical power, oil, and gas--and across all regions where Russian firms play a key role.
The challenges of consolidating statehood which lie before the states of Central Asia and the Caucasus in the immediate future,are likely to be shaped by the peculiarities of the relationships of these states to Russia, and what strategic consequence this might have from the US.
Presentations by Ambassador Elizabeth Jones, Senior Advisor for Caspian Basin Energy Diplomacy, Edward C. Chow, an international oil consultant, and Martha Brill Olcott, Carnegie Senior Associate
Improving security measures alone will not solve the problems in the Caspian region and the role of the US in this process is a limited one. The countries of the region must add to the number of stakeholders in their countries to begin this reform.