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ISSUE BRIEF--Iran is threatening to restart its suspended uranium enrichment program. If it does, negotiations with the European Union will collapse and the crisis will escalate. Does the United States -- or Israel -- have a military option?
North Korea’s state controlled media claimed on May 11 the country had completed removal of 8,000 fuel rods from its 5 megawatt plutonium production reactor at Yongbyon. Estimates by the Institute for Science and International Security suggest the fuel elements contain between 12 and 19 kilograms of plutonium. These fuel elements will have to cool for an unknown period of time in the fuel storage pond located next to the reactor building. It is estimated that within 2-3 months, the fuel could be processed and the weapon-usable plutonium made ready for production of nuclear weapons. There is no conclusive evidence that North Korea possesses any nuclear weapons, but U.S. officials assume they have produced an unknown number of nuclear devices. (Read More)
Despite reports that North Korea may be preparing to conduct a nuclear test and may soon have access to another four weapons worth of plutonium, North Korea’s nuclear capabilities and intentions remain unclear. The known facts, however, are disturbing enough to confirm that current efforts to stop North Korea’s nuclear program have failed.
Earlier this year, on February 10, North Korea declared definitively that it had nuclear weapons. While not supported by new evidence, the Foreign Ministry statement enhanced the perception that North Korea is a nuclear weapon state. While responsible leaders have to assume North Korea has enough nuclear material to make a weapon, there is no clear evidence that it has produced such weapons or can deliver them reliably. (Read More)
North Korea has taken a series of actions in the past few months that in normal times would have provoked a major international crisis. Yet, the Bush administration is unconcerned about these moves that directly threaten American security and the security of key US allies South Korea and Japan. The U.S. now appears resigned to the fact that North Korea has the ability to make nuclear weapons and is not prepared to take coercive steps or otherwise to prevent it from consolidating its status as a nuclear weapon state.
North Korea has taken a series of actions in the past few months that in normal times would have provoked a major international crisis. Yet, the Bush administration is unconcerned about these moves that directly threaten American security and the security of key US allies South Korea and Japan.
As envoys from around the world meet this month in New York to review the NPT, this important security system is mired in such discord that it is in danger of crumbling.
One would think, with the end of the cold war, the global war against terrorism, and the high level of attention paid to proliferation, that NPT members would be poised to reaffirm the Treaty’s vital importance and take action to enhance it for the years ahead. Yet, it is now clear that the NPT is in crisis.
North Korea does not have a missile that can hit the United States. This is a theoretical capability, not an operational one. Nor is there any evidence, at least in open sources or leaked classified ones, that North Korea can make a nuclear warhead small enough to fit on a long-range missile.
The Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) is a good program that has been puffed up out of proportion. While the initiative is a valuable extension of export control implementation, it is not and cannot be a silver bullet to prevent the proliferation of nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons-related materials and equipment to terrorists or states.
India's foreign minister visited Washington last week and met with President Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to discuss a range of mutual interests, from countering China's strategic clout to promoting economic growth and resolving India-Pakistan tensions. Unfortunately, the Bush administration's obsession with Iran threatens to block a major initiative that could advance those goals.
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