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The official end to the U.S. search for weapons in Iraq confirms what most observers had known for over a year and what UN inspections indicated before the war: Iraq did not have any significant amount of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons or long-range missiles. Some old weapons produced before the 1991 war may still be found, but it is clear that the main justification for launching the 2003 invasion of Iraq was not true. As a Carnegie study concluded one year ago, administration officials systematically misled the American people as to the nature of the threat and the need for military action. Saddam Hussein, who had ruled the nation in a brutal dictatorship since 1979, had actively pursued such programs and had produced thousands of tons of chemical and biological weapon agents during the 1980s. The programs were ended and the stockpiles destroyed by the 1991 Gulf War and United Nations disarmament activities that followed.
US representatives have given the Iranian government little reason to give up its weapons program. At the same time, administration rhetoric seems to be boxing the US into a position where Washington may feel that it has no choice but to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites itself, or allow Israel to do so. This could easily lead to a spiral or retaliation leading eventually to full-scale conflict.
It is now two years since North Korea withdrew from the Nonproliferation Treaty and since Pyongyang restarted its plutonium production program. The results of efforts by South Korea, China, Japan and particularly the United States have failed to convince North Korea to abandon its nuclear program and are now little but an empty shell of a policy. 2005 will be a difficult year.
The new UN report, "A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility," addresses emerging threats of the 21st century. It identifies erosion of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, the stagnation of disarmament efforts, illicit nuclear trafficking, and the potential threat of nuclear terrorism major crises of the nonproliferation regime as. The report proposes a multi-layered response to these threats.
Iran's nuclear program is becoming an increasingly large issue in Turkey. Despite abundant publications worldwide about Iran’s alleged efforts to develop nuclear weapons for more than two decades, Turkish security elite have only recently started to express concerns about the subject. To date, their stance vis-à-vis Iran’s nuclear program would be categorized as one of negligence.
It's time for some straight talk about missile defense, including the scientific and technical challenges which it faces and which, if not solved, will prevent the system from being effective, no matter how much money is spent on heavy construction, re-bar and concrete.
One year ago this December 19, Libya announced it was abandoning its nuclear weapon and missile programs after over two decades of trying to build a bomb. Since then, Libya has permitted international officials to inspect 10 previously undisclosed nuclear sites and to remove and destroy all key components of its programs. Libya is a model for how to end a nation’s nuclear weapon program by changing regime behavior rather than by changing the regime.
Discussion on Russian perspective on the relationship between nuclear deterrence and nuclear proliferation.
Carnegie senior associate Michael McFaul reviews Kenneth Pollack's new book, The Persian Puzzle: The Conflict Between Iran and Ameri
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