Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Follow Carnegie
- Search
- Global Resources
Global Centers
Languages
Senior associate Michael McFaul and Hoover fellow Abbas Milani on the Iran nuclear crisis.
Much of the world breathed a sigh of relief when Iran and three European Union countries recently agreed on a course to resolve the boiling crisis over Iran's nuclear activities. With Iran agreeing to suspend those activities as long as progress is made in structuring a longer-term cooperative relationship with Europe, the nuclear issue shifted to the backburner. But the relief was cut short by the US claim of new evidence that Iran is violating its commitment not to pursue nuclear weapons.
The International Atomic Energy Agency will approve its report on South Korea’s past nuclear activities this week. Unfortunately, the Roh government has resisted any attempt to refer the issue to the to the UN Security Council for a final resolution. This is unfortunate, since a UN resolution would not only further demonstrate South Korea’s new found openness regarding its peaceful nuclear intentions, but it misses a golden opportunity to demonstrate to North Korea how it must behave to resolve outstanding nuclear concerns.
Iran's nuclear ambitions have once again returned to the headlines. Just days after the Mideast nation entered an agreement with the European trio – France, Germany, and the UK – US officials made allegations about Iran's continued weapons development. As those accusations remain unsubstantiated, writes nonproliferation expert George Perkovich, the focus of international attention should remain on Iran's deal with Europe. Indeed, facilitating this relationship will be complicated, due to the deep-seated distrust simmering among all involved parties – and the US presence in Iraq further complicates matters. The most effective route to securing a deal, suggests Perkovich, may have to entail UN Security Council involvement: "This would raise the incentives of all parties to fulfill its terms."
An Iranian opposition group has accused Iran of smuggling in weapons-grade uranium and bomb designs from the A.Q. Khan network and hiding a uranium enrichment facility. On November 17, the National Council of Resistance (NCR) told reporters that in 2001, A.Q. Khan gave Iran a small quantity of highly enriched uranium (HEU), though not enough to make a bomb.
U.S. President George Bush has won reelection. He is the first President to receive more than 50 percent of the votes cast since 1988 and got more votes than anyone President in American history. In addition, his Republican Party has increased its majority in both houses of the US Congress, giving the President an even more comfortable base of support in Washington. Overall, President Bush can claim a mandate from the American people, and it is reasonable for him and his advisors to view the vote as an endorsement on their policies and priorities. This will have serious and possibly profound implications for US policy and for many other countries, particularly key US allies in East Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. The end result may be to project the split nature of American politics onto the rest of the world, forcing countries to choose between the United States or alternative approaches to their security.
The United States faces mounting concerns about Iran’s quest for a nuclear fuel cycle and the escalating insurgency in Iraq. Listen to a discussion on the prospects for moving beyond the current – and quite possibly dangerous – stalemate in U.S-Iranian relations.
Iran has been caught breaking its obligations under the NPT, and is now being investigated by the IAEA and the Security Council. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, on behalf of the EU, have taken the lead in trying to reverse Iran’s threatening course. If Iran gets away with acquiring nuclear weapons in these circumstances, it would make a mockery of the nonproliferation regime. The Middle East would become even more dangerous. In short, Iran may be the proliferation tipping point.
Stay connected to the Global Think Tank with Carnegie's smartphone app for Android and iOS devices