Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
While President Vladimir Putin expected little resistance in Ukraine, as was the case in Crimea in 2014, instead he is experiencing what Russia faced in its 1994 attempted invasion of Chechnya. In both cases, once Russian forces encountered political resistance, they had no plan B, leading to intense fighting.
There does not right now appear to be any leakage of radiation from the plant. Nonetheless, a fire at a nuclear power plant is a significant concern.
Anna Ohanyan of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace says Russia has been “building” the conflict with Ukraine as an existential war, which makes it difficult for it to “climb down.
Russia is a nuclear power and ... based upon those war games that there are circumstances that could emerge from this conflict under which they would be willing to employ a nuclear weapon.
James Acton discusses concerns over nuclear power safety in Ukraine.
Evan Feigenbaum offers a compelling analysis of the difficult position that Beijing now finds itself in after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine — unable to reconcile conflicting commitments to China’s strategic partnership with Russia, its foreign policy principles, and its desire to avoid being collateral damage from American and European sanctions.
The Russians have been priming the information environment for so long that this does suggest that the Russians might be a bit desperate. They certainly didn't meet their military objectives in a swift invasion or defeat.
In the now 24 plus hours since he (Putin) gave that order, we've seen some reporting from U.S. Officials suggesting that nothing has actually changed in Russia's nuclear posture.
Of course one should be looking for opportunities to de-escalate something that is having an enormous cost in human lives, but … one has to be careful not to blame oneself for escalation when this is obviously a horror that has been launched by Putin